节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”倾向的影响——兼论不同情景约束下的调节效应

The Impact of the Adoption of Water-saving Irrigation Technology on the"Non Grain"Tendency of Farmers'Cultivated Land:Simultaneously Study the Regulatory Effects Under Different Situational Constraints

科学技术的采用并非都能形成积极影响,也可能诱导一些负面影响,需要辩证看待。与粮食作物相比,节水灌溉技术与非粮作物具有更高的契合度和收益率,使得农户在采用节水灌溉技术增产增收的同时,易产生耕地“非粮化”倾向。基于河南等五省(区)的3440户农户数据,实证分析了节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”的诱导影响,并构建了相关情景约束以减弱不利影响。结果表明,节水灌溉技术采用会显著促进农户耕地“非粮化”倾向产生。节水灌溉技术采用形成的预期非粮作物收益与实际种粮收益的亩均收入差为5286.13元,是节水灌溉技术采用与农户耕地“非粮化”倾向之间的中介机制。规模化经营、降低劳动力成本等农户生产经营条件会显著减弱节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”倾向的诱导作用;粮食补贴会显著抑制节水灌溉技术采用对耕地“非粮化”的诱导,但受到种植规模的约束,小规模经营中粮食补贴的抑制作用更明显。鉴于此,建议在推广节水灌溉技术时,通过完善节水灌溉的配套支持、优化粮食生产条件和加大种粮补贴等手段,提高农户种粮积极性,抑制耕地“非粮化”倾向。

The adoption of science and technology does not always have a positive impact,but may also induce some negative impacts,which need to be treated dialectically.Compared to grain crops,water-saving irrigation technology has a higher degree of compatibility and profitability with non-grain crops,making it easy for farmers to adopt water-saving irrigation technology to increase production and income,while prone to a tendency to cultivate non-grain crops.Based on the data of 3440 households in five provinces(regions)such as Henan Province,this paper empirically analyzes the induced impact of water-saving irrigation technology on the cultivation of non-grain crops by farmers,and constructs relevant scenario constraints to mitigate adverse impacts.The results show that the adoption of water-saving irrigation technology can significantly promote the trend of cultivating non-grain crops on farmers'land.The difference between the expected income from non-grain crops and the actual income from grain planting per mu generated by the adoption of water-saving irrigation technology is 5286.13 yuan,which serves as an intermediary mechanism between the adoption of water-saving irrigation technology and the tendency of farmers to cultivate non-grain crops.Expanding the planting scale and reducing labor costs will significantly weaken the inducing effect of adopting water-saving irrigation technology on the tendency of farmers to cultivate non-grain crops;grain subsidies can significantly inhibit the cultivation of non-grain crops using water-saving irrigation techniques,but due to the constraints of planting scale,the inhibitory effect of grain subsidies in small-scale operations is more obvious.In view of this,it is recommended that when promoting water-saving irrigation technology,measures such as improving supporting facilities for water-saving irrigation,optimizing grain production conditions,and increasing grain subsidies should be taken.