基于ARIMA模型的南昌市结核病流行趋势预测分析

Prediction of Tuberculosis Incidence Trend in Nanchang Based on ARIMA Model

目的:分析南昌市肺结核的流行趋势特征,探讨应用自回归移动平均模型对南昌市肺结核疫情流行趋势特征进行分析和预测,为相关部门制定肺结核综合防控策略提供参考依据。方法:通过中国疾病预防控制中心传染病监测系统获取2012年1月1日—2022年12月31日,现住址为南昌市的肺结核报告发病数据,应用SPSS 25.0软件构建基于南昌市肺结核发病数的自回归移动平均模型,对南昌市肺结核疫情的流行趋势进行分析和预测。结果:2012—2022年南昌市共报告新发肺结核病例44049例,总体呈逐年下降趋势。确定最优预测模型为ARIMA(0,1,4)(0,1,2)12,对2023年1—8月肺结核发病数进行预测并与实际值比较分析的结果显示,预测较好。结论:自回归移动平均模型对肺结核疫情预测效果良好,可以作为肺结核疫情短期预测的工具。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemic trend characteristics of tuberculosis in Nanchang,and explore the application of Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)to analyze and predict the epidemic trend characteristics of tuberculosis in Nanchang.It provides scientific basis for further developing comprehensive prevention and control strategy of tuberculosis in Nanchang.METHODS Data of tuberculosis incidence reported in Nanchang city from January 1st,2012 to December 31st,2022 were obtained through the infectious disease surveillance system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The autoregressive moving average model based on tuberculosis incidence in Nanchang was constructed by using SPSS 25.0 software.The epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Nanchang was analyzed and predicted.RESULTS From 2012 to 2022,a total of 44049 new cases of tuberculosis were reported in Nanchang,showing a trend of decreasing year by year.The optimal prediction model was determined as ARIMA(0,1,4)(0,1,2)12,and the incidence of tuberculosis from January to August 2023 was predicted and compared with the actual value,the results showed that the prediction was good.CONCLUSION ARIMA can be used as a tool for short-term prediction of tuberculosis epidemic at the grass-roots level.Nanchang should strengthen the continuous monitoring of tuberculosis.