目标运动要素解算质量评价体系构建与评估

Construction and Assessment of Quality Evaluation System for Solving Target Motion Elements

水面舰艇反潜作战过程中,目标跟踪是其重要组成部分。目标跟踪过程中通过目标运动要素解算得到目标四要素信息,并通过解算结果计算命中概率。目标运动要素的解算结果受战场情况、探测方式以及解算模型等多方面因素影响,为将各个分离的单一因素关联起来,文中从解算数据完整性、可用性、及时性以及准确性4个方面构建了一种目标运动要素解算质量评价体系,以总偏差最小为目的将层次分析法和熵权法有效结合以确定指标权重,经加权求和得到目标运动要素解算质量评估值,并与命中概率仿真结果进行对比分析。仿真结果表明,使用解算质量计算出的近似命中概率与实际命中概率误差小于9.2%,文中构建的评价体系能有效将各个信息结合起来,合理充分地表达命中概率,有利于交战决策。

Target tracking is an important part of the anti-submarine warfare process of surface ships.In the process of target tracking,the four elements of targets are obtained through the target motion element solving,and the hit probability is calculated through the result.The solution results of the target motion elements are affected by many factors,such as battlefield situation,detection method,and solution model.In order to associate the separated factor,a quality evaluation system for solving target motion elements was constructed from the four aspects of completeness,availability,timeliness,and accuracy of the solved data.In order to minimize the total deviation,the analytic hierarchy method and entropy weight method were effectively combined to determine the index weight.The quality evaluation value of the target motion elements was obtained by weighted summation and compared with the simulation result of hit probability.The simulation results show that the error between the approximate hit probability and the actual hit probability calculated by using the solved mass is less than 9.2%.The evaluation system constructed in this paper can effectively combine all information,reasonably and fully express the hit probability,and is conducive to the decision-making of the engagement.