2021年夏季青海全球数值模式降水预报检验

Vertification of Precipitation Forecast Based on Global Numerical Models in Qinghai in Summer of 2021

基于站点观测和全球数值模式(ECMWF、CMA-GFS)24 h降水预报资料,采用TS评分、空报率等方法进行检验和对比分析。结果表明:ECMWF、CMA-GFS模式对小雨的TS评分较高且稳定,中、大、暴雨的TS评分随着降水量级的增加而随之递减。ECMWF、GFS模式对青海省祁连山区、青南地区的小雨命中率较高,东部河谷地区次之,而柴达木盆地的小雨命中率最低。两种模式对东部河谷地区的大雨有一定命中率,但命中率低,约在0.09~0.50之间,其中ECMWF模式的大雨命中率高于CMA-GFS模式。

Based on site observations and 24-hour precipitation forecast data from global numerical models(ECMWF,CMA-GFS),the TS score and false alarm ratio are used for verification and comparative analysis.The main results showed that:TS scores of ECMWF and CMA-GFS models to light rain were higher and more stable,while TS scores to different level precipitation above moderate rain was getting lower with increasing precipitation level.Precipitation forecast to light rain of two models had higher hit rate in the Qilian Mountain and the south area of Qinghai,followed by the eastern valley areas,the hit rate was lowest in the Qaidam Basin.Two models had a certain hit rate for heavy rain in the valley area of eastern Qinghai,but its value was low,ranging from 0.09 to 0.5,and the hit rate for heavy rain of EC model was higher than CMA-GFS model.