美苏援助与南方国家财政汲取能力变动

US-Soviet Aid and Fiscal Extractive Capacity Variations in the Countries of the South

援助的财政效应是考察援助有效性的重要途径,也是理解南方国家能力建设的重要视角。尽管南方国家在冷战期间普遍接受了来自美国和苏联的大量援助,但不同国家之间出现了财政汲取能力的变动和治理绩效的分化。为什么一些南方国家可以扭转外国援助的负面影响并提升自身的税收汲取能力,而另外一些南方国家却难以摆脱援助带来的财政困境?作者认为决策精英面临的租金分配激励是促成南方国家在短期内调整征税方式并改善财政汲取能力的关键前因。通过分析面板数据集中美苏援助在模型中的国别财政效应、边际效应和相对联盟规模对美苏援助的调节财政效应以及汇报美国经济援助中的赠款因素在大样本和典型国别样本上的模型结果与案例证据,可以发现冷战期间南方国家提升自身财政汲取能力的情况往往发生在租金分配秩序出现危机的阶段。其中,较少的美苏军事援助、美国经济援助中较低的赠款比重、苏联经济援助中较高的还款比重、受援国较小的相对联盟规模和单一外援接受策略等因素更有利于促进受援国决策精英提升其改进财政制度的动力,进而促进国家财政汲取能力出现正向变动。随着自身地缘政治博弈价值和战略价值的日益提升,南方国家需要注重培育内生的发展动力,排除国际发展环境的不利影响,逐步实现自身可持续的国家能力建设。

The fiscal effects of aid are a crucial aspect for evaluating aid effectiveness and understanding the state capacity-building processes in countries of the South.Despite the fact that the countries of the South generally received large amounts of aid from the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War,variations in fiscal extraction capacity and divergences in governance performance were observed among different countries.Why were some countries able to overcome the negative impacts of foreign aid and enhance their tax extraction capabilities,while others struggled to escape the fiscal traps induced by aid?By evaluating the fiscal effects of aid from two different analytical perspectives,this paper argues that the rent distribution incentives that decision-making elites face are key antecedents in prompting countries of the South to adjust their tax policy and improve fiscal extraction capacity in the short term.By analyzing the fiscal effects,the marginal effects of US and Soviet aid,and the moderating fiscal effects of relative coalition size on US and Soviet aid in panel data,along with reporting the results of a large sample model and evidence of typical country cases on the grant factors in US economic aid,this paper finds that the boost in fiscal extractive capacity for the countries of the South often occurred when the rent allocation order faced crises among decision-making elites.In particular,less US and Soviet military aid,lower grant proportions in US economic aid,higher repayment proportions in Soviet economic aid,smaller alliance sizes,and“one-sided”foreign aid acceptance strategy among recipient countries were conducive to enhancing the motivation of decision-making elites to improve fiscal systems,leading to positive variations in fiscal extractive capacity.In the face of the increasingly geopolitical competition and strategic value,countries of the South need to nurture endogenous development dynamics,mitigate the adverse impacts of the international developmental environment,and achieve sustainable state capacitybuilding.