颠覆性技术识别与扩散趋势预测:概念模型与实证分析

Identification of Disruptive Technologies and Prediction of Diffusion Trends:Conceptual Model and Empirical Analysis

发现并判断技术颠覆性潜力和扩散趋势,能够为国家和政府科技资源分配与未来产业的超前布局提供精准决策依据。首先,本文构建了颠覆性技术识别与扩散趋势预测的概念模型;其次,依据此模型以3D打印领域为例,从离群性和影响力维度识别颠覆性专利,提取颠覆性技术;最后,基于识别的颠覆性专利的施引专利,将自动标签和战略坐标应用于技术主题扩散路径绘制中,提出一种新的多位态自动标签技术主题扩散趋势预测方法,用于揭示核心、边缘、成熟、新兴等位态主题之间的动态扩散关系。研究发现,离群专利与颠覆性技术之间存在共生、匹配和关联的内在逻辑关系,从离群专利视角识别颠覆性技术具有可行性;1955—2017年,3D打印领域的颠覆性技术主要分布在高端装备制造、生物医药和材料3大方向,突出的技术领域是运输、发动机/泵/涡轮机、生物材料分析、半导体、环境技术;多位态自动标签技术主题扩散趋势预测结果显示,生物医疗3D打印技术主题未来发展潜力巨大。

Identifying and assessing the disruptive potential and diffusion trends of a technology can provide a basis for precise decision-making regarding the allocation of scientific and technological resources and advanced layout of future industries for the country and government.This study first constructs a conceptual model for identifying disruptive technologies and predicting their diffusion trends.Subsequently,based on this model,using the 3D printing field as an example,disruptive patents are identified from among outliers and influence dimensions,and disruptive technologies are extracted.Finally,based on the identification of disruptive patents,automatic labeling and strategic coordinates are applied to technology topic diffusion paths.A new multistate automatic labeling technology topic diffusion trend prediction method is proposed to reveal the dynamic diffusion relationship between core,edge,mature,emerging,and other positional themes.An inherent logical relationship among symbiosis,matching,and the association between outlier patents and disruptive technologies is established through further research.Thus,identifying disruptive technologies from the perspective of outlier patents is feasible.The disruptive technologies in the field of 3D printing from 1955 to 2017 were mainly distributed in three directions:high-end equipment manufacturing,biopharmaceuticals,and materials.The prominent technological fields were transportation,engines/pumps/turbines,biomaterial analysis,semiconductors,and environmental technology.The predicted trend of topic diffusion in multi-state automatic labeling technology indicates that the future development po‐tential of biomedical 3D printing technology is enormous.