碳交易政策对高碳产业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究

Impact of Carbon Trading Policy on Green Total Factor Productivity of High-Carbon Industries

本文以碳交易市场中交易规模最大的电力行业为例,基于超效率SBM方法对样本省份和城市2010—2019年电力行业的绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)进行测算,构建多期DID模型,实证检验碳交易政策对高碳产业GTFP的影响。研究发现:碳交易试点政策能够显著提升试点地区电力行业GTFP,地区二氧化碳排放量与对外开放程度均不利于电力行业GTFP的提升;使用基准线法进行碳配额分配的地区电力行业GTFP明显提升,但历史法的作用效果并不显著;碳交易政策通过推动电力行业再生能源技术进步来提升GTFP;地区数字化水平对碳交易政策推动电力行业GTFP提升有正向调节作用;碳交易政策的效果在不同区域存在一定差异,我国东部地区碳交易政策提升电力行业GTFP的效果突出,而在中部与西部地区短期内政策效果尚不明显。为推动高碳产业绿色全要素生产率的提升,应加快建立和完善配额分配体系、健全碳交易市场信息披露体系、加强数据统计与核算、推进高碳产业绿色能源结构改革、加快推动数字经济高质量发展。

The super efficiency SBM model is adopted to estimate the green total factor productivity(GTFP)of the electric power industry,which has the largest trading scale in the carbon trading market,in each province from 2010 to 2019.A multi-phase DID model is established to empirically test the impact of carbon trading policy on the GTFP of high-carbon industries.The results show that carbon trading policy sig-nificantly improves the GTFP of the electric power industry in pilot areas,while regional carbon dioxide emis-sions and the open-up degree are not conducive to the improvement in GTFP of the electric power industry.Carbon quota allocation with the benchmark method significantly increases the GTFP of the regional electric power industry,while that with the historical method demonstrates limited effect.Carbon trading policy en-hances GTFP by promoting the advancement of renewable energy technology in the electric power industry.The level of digitalization positively regulates the impact of carbon trading policy on the GTFP in the electric power industry.Carbon trading policy demonstrates varied effects on the GTFP of the electric power industry in different regions,with a prominent improving effect in eastern China and limited short-term effects in cen-tral and western China.To improve the GTFP in high-carbon industries,measures should be taken to acceler-ate the establishment and improvement of the carbon quota allocation system,improve the information disclo-sure system of the carbon trading market,strengthen data statistics and accounting,promote the reform of the green energy structure in high-carbon industries,and boost the high-quality development of the digital economy.