生态位模型在病媒传染病研究中的应用进展

Progress in the application of ecological niche models in vector⁃borne infectious diseases

生态位模型是利用物种分布数据和相关环境变量,根据一定的算法建立模型分析物种的生态需求,以预测不同时空下物种的实际分布和潜在分布。现阶段,该模型已在病媒传染病的危险因素识别、传播风险预测领域中取得了很好的预测效果,表明其在疾病传播动态分析和流行病学研究方面具有较好的应用价值,但对于一些自然疫源性或者生物因素影响较大的疾病预测,生物性因素被纳入构建模型的重要参数则较为少见,预测结果存在一定的局限性,有必要在应用生态位模型研究此类疾病中从模型设计、数据挖掘和处理中更多地考虑生物因素,从而提高预测结果的可信度。

The ecological niche model uses species distribution data and related environmental variables to establish a model based on a certain algorithm to analyze the ecological needs of species in order to predict the actual and potential distribution of species in different time and space.At present,the model has achieved good prediction results in the fields of risk factor identification and transmission risk prediction of vector⁃borne infectious diseases,indicating that it has good application value in disease transmission dynamic analysis and epidemiological research.However,for the prediction of some diseases with natural epidemic sources or large influence of biological factors,it is relatively rare for biological factors to be included as important parameters in the construction of the model,and the prediction results have certain limitations.It is necessary to consider more biological factors in the model design,data mining and processing when applying the ecological niche model to study such diseases,so as to improve the reliability of the prediction results.