基于投影寻踪优化算法的自然资源与经济高质量发展关系研究——以桂西南喀斯特—北部湾为例

Research on the relationship between natural resources and high-quality economic development based on optimization of projection pursuit——A case study of Southwest Guangxi karst-Beibu gulf

开展自然资源利用综合研究,对于实现自然资源统一管理、服务高质量发展与实现中国式现代化具有重要意义。运用基于遗传算法的投影寻踪模型测算桂西南喀斯特-北部湾2005-2020年自然资源利用与经济高质量发展水平,结合Tapio脱钩模型和对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解模型揭示其驱动效应。结果表明:①桂西南喀斯特-北部湾自然资源利用水平与经济高质量发展水平均上升且空间特征明显,自然资源利用呈现自西北向东南递减的空间特征,经济高质量发展表现为中部与东南高、西北低的时空特征;②自然资源利用与经济高质量发展的脱钩关系波动变化,以弱脱钩为主,伴有增长连结、扩张型负脱钩和强负脱钩类型;二者之间的可持续性减弱;脱钩程度表现为由西北喀斯特地区向东南沿海地区减弱的空间特征;③空间效应具有抑制作用,技术效应具有促进作用,人口效应与经济效应对自然资源利用的影响方向和强度不稳定;各因素的驱动作用排序为:空间效应>经济效应>基数效应>人口效应。未来应坚持“两山论”的思想为统领,以规范化的评价体系、创新性的经济手段为重要抓手,全面提高桂西南喀斯特-北部湾自然资源利用效率与助推经济高质量发展。

It is of great significance to carry out a comprehensive study on the utilization of natural resources in order to realize the unified management of natural resources,to serve high-quality development and to realize Chinese path to modernization.Based on genetic algorithm,this paper applied a projection tracing model to measure the natural resource utilization and high-quality economic development level of Southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf from 2005 to 2020,and then combined with the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition model to reveal its driving effects.The results showed that:①The level of natural resource utilization and high-quality economic development in the Karst-Beibu Gulf of southwestern Gui were both rising and have obvious spatial characteristics,with natural resource utilization decreasing from the northwest to the southeast,and high-quality economic development being high in the center and southeast and low in the northwest.②The decoupling relationship between the two showed fluctuating changes,dominated by weak decoupling,accompanied by growth linkage,expansionary negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling types.Their sustainability was weakened,and they exhibited spatial characteristics of weakening from the northwestern karst region to the southeastern coastal region.③The spatial effect had shown an inhibitory effect,the technological effect had shown a promotional effect,and the population effect and the economic effect had an unstable direction and intensity of influence on the utilization of natural resources.The driving role of each factor was in the following order:Spatial effect>economic effect>base effect>population effect.In the future,local government should insist on taking the idea of“two mountains”theory as the leading principle,and take the standardized evaluation system and innovative economic means as the important grips to comprehensively improve the utilization efficiency of natural resources in Southwest Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf and promote the high-quality economic development.