旅游促进乡村发展的空间效应——基于新疆83个县市的实证分析

Spatial effect of tourism promoting rural development:An empirical analysis of 83 counties in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

旅游业是乡村振兴的有效推动力。以新疆83个县市为研究对象,综合运用双变量空间自相关检验与空间杜宾模型探讨新疆旅游发展影响乡村发展的空间效应。结果表明:①2006—2020年,新疆旅游发展与乡村发展表现出明显的空间集聚特征,并且后者空间集聚程度逐渐增强。两者之间的空间关联性也存在逐渐增强的趋势。②新疆旅游业发展整体上可以同时助推“本地”及“邻地”的农业生产发展、农民生活改善和社会经济支撑的提升,进而促进乡村发展水平的提升,并且具有较强的空间溢出效应。③新疆旅游发展影响乡村发展的空间效应表现出明显的时空异质性。时间上,以2011年为分界点,该空间效应表现出“负→正”的转变过程;空间上,该空间效应表现出“由北到南递减”的特征。从分解路径来看,该空间效应也表现出突出的区域异质性。最后,基于上述研究结论,有针对性地提出相关政策建议,为推进旅游赋能乡村振兴与新疆乡村多元化发展提供重要的参考。

Tourism industry is the effective driving force for rural revitalization.Taking 83 counties(cities)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous(Xinjiang for short)as research objects,this paper firstly uses bivariate spatial autocorrelation test to examine the spatial correlation between tourism development and rural development in Xinjiang;and then uses spatial Dubin model to explore the spatial effects of tourism development on rural development in Xinjiang.The results show that:1)Tourism development and rural development in Xinjiang show certain spatial agglomeration characteristics during the study period.The spatial agglomeration intensity of rural development in Xinjiang shows a gradually increasing trend.What’s more,their spatial correlation also gradually increased from 2006 to 2020.2)Tourism development in Xinjiang can simultaneously promote the development of agricultural production,the improvement of farmers’life and the improvement of social and economic support in both“local”and“neighboring”areas,thus promoting the improvement of rural development level,and has a strong spatial spillover effect.3)The spatial spillover effects of tourism development on rural development in Xinjiang show obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity.In terms of time,taking 2011 as the cut-off point,the spatial effect shows a“negative→positive”transition process.Spatially,the spatial spillover effects show the feature of“decreasing from north to south”.In addition,from the decomposition paths,their spatial spillover effects also show prominent regional heterogeneity.Among them,the development of tourism in southern Xinjiang has a certain“siphon effect”on social and economic support.Finally,based on the research conclusions,relevant policy suggestions are put forward to provide important references for promoting the rural revitalization of tourism empowerment and the diversified development of Xinjiang’s rural areas.