农田生态系统碳源强度时空变化及影响因素分解

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Carbon Source and Sink Intensity in Agricultural Ecosystems and Decomposition of Influencing Factors

研究农田碳源强度的时空演变及影响因素对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。文章基于2005-2021年我国31省份数据,利用空间自相关和空间杜宾模型,分析农田碳排放强度的时空特征并探究其驱动因素。结果表明:①2005-2009年农田碳排放强度呈增长态势,2009-2021年呈下降趋势;②在空间上农田碳排放强度呈东南高西北低的空间格局;③在碳源因素分解中,农业产业结构调整与机械化水平提高可抑制碳排放。

Studying the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon source intensity in farmland is of great significance for sustainable agricultural development.The article is based on data from 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021,using spatial autocorrelation and spatial Durbin model to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of farmland carbon emission intensity and explore its driving factors.The results show that:①The carbon emission intensity of farmland showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2009,and a decreasing trend from 2009 to 2021;②In terms of space,the carbon emission intensity of farmland shows a spatial pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest;③In the decomposition of carbon source factors,the adjustment of agricultural industry structure and the improvement of mechanization level can suppress carbon emissions.