基于马尔可夫链的城市埋地燃气管道泄漏失效概率计算

Markov Chain-Based Calculation of Failure Probability of Urban Buried Gas Pipeline Leakage

城市埋地燃气管道泄漏可能造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,因此,开展燃气管道泄漏概率研究具有重要意义。基于马尔可夫链理论建立城市埋地燃气管道泄漏失效概率的计算模型,量化其失效概率,联合欧洲天然气管道事故统计数据证明其有效性。结果表明,管道泄漏失效概率计算不可忽略管道的可修复性;调整修复率可使模型适用于不同泄漏类型的失效概率计算;模型预测精度满足工程要求;为燃气管道风险评估和事故防控提供基础数据支撑。

Leakage of urban buried gas pipelines may cause a large number of casualties and property losses,so it is of great significance to carry out research on the probability of gas pipeline leakage.Based on the Markov chain theory,a model for calculating the failure probability of ur-ban buried gas pipeline leakage is established to quantify the failure probability,and its validity is proved jointly with the statistics of gas pipeline ac-cidents in Europe.The results show that the calculation of pipeline leakage failure probability cannot ignore the reparability of the pipeline;adjust-ing the repair rate can make the model applicable to the calculation of failure probability of different types of leakage;the model prediction accuracy meets the engineering requirements;and it provides the basic data support for the risk assessment and accident prevention and control of gas pipe-lines.