辽宁省作物生长季参考作物腾发量变化分析

Change Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration during the Growing Season in Liaoning Province

利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个国家级气象观测站生长季的逐日气象观测数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算辽宁省参考作物腾发量(ET_(0)),利用ArcGIS的克里格插值法、M-K检验分析辽宁省生长季ET_(0)的时空分布特征,对影响ET_(0)变化的气象因子进行了分析。结果表明:近60年辽宁省生长季参考作物腾发量呈现由西北向东南递减的变化趋势;ET_(0)在1961—2010年呈下降趋势,2011—2020年呈升高趋势,生长季多年平均ET_(0)变化趋势表现为波动下降;生长季内ET_(0)对相对湿度的响应最为敏感,为负效应;ET_(0)对风速和温度变化敏感性相对较小,为正效应。湿度的敏感系数绝对值明显高于风速和温度,7月达到峰值;多年相对变化率绝对值最大的是风速,其次是温度和相对湿度;对ET_(0)贡献最大的是风速,温度和湿度对ET_(0)的正贡献不及风速的负贡献,综合敏感性和贡献两方面因素分析,风速的变化趋势为ET_(0)呈下降趋势的主导因子。

Based on daily meteorological observation data from 62 national meteorological observation stations in Liaoning province during the growing season from 1961 to 2020,the Penman Monteith equation was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in Liaoning province.Using ArcGIS Kriging interpolation method and M-K test,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of ET_(0)in Liaoning province during the growing season were analyzed,and the causes of ET_(0)changes were analyzed.The results indicated that the reference crop ET_(0)in Liaoning province during the growing season in the past 60 years showed a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast.The ET_(0)showed a declining pattern from 1961 to 2010,and followed by an ascending trend from 2011 to 2020.The variation trend of multi-year average ET_(0)during the growing season showed a fluctuating downward trend.The response of ET_(0)during the growing season to relative humidity was the most sensitive,which was a negative effect,and the response sensitivity of ET_(0)to wind speed and temperature changes was relatively small,which was a positive effect.The absolute value of the sensitivity coefficient of ET_(0)to humidity was significantly higher than those to wind speed and temperature.The maximum value of the sensitivity coefficient of ET_(0)to humidity appeared in July.The absolute value of the multi-year relative change rate of change was the largest in wind speed,followed by temperature and relative humidity.Wind speed was the largest contribution of the three meteorological elements to ET_(0),and the positive contribution of temperature and humidity to ET_(0)was less than the negative contribution of wind speed.According to the comprehensive sensitivity and contribution of two factors analysis,the changing trend of wind speed was the dominant factor for the declining trend of ET_(0).