国内政治变化与亚太盟国的政策转向

Domestic Political Changes and Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Allies’Policies

在中美竞争加剧的背景下,美国极力拉拢亚太盟国对中国进行战略围堵。近段时间以来,部分美国亚太盟国对中美两国的政策出现明显转向。这一现象与盟国的国内政治变化关系紧密。既有研究从执政党偏好、政权合法性、国内危机应对、观众成本等视角探讨了国内政治对联盟政治的影响。澳大利亚、菲律宾与韩国的内政外交现状表明,政党竞争使得国家的联盟政策呈现出党派色彩,执政地位危机强化领导人调整联盟关系的意愿,而国内反华情绪则制约着与中国双边关系的发展程度。亚太盟国在国内政治驱动下调整其在中美之间的政策选择将给本国政府带来更多政治考验,加剧了地区局势的动荡。中国应注重提升亚太国家民众对华好感度,深化与亚太国家的经贸合作,增强地区多边安全机制的稳定性,妥善应对美国亚太盟国的政策转向。

Under intensifying competition with China,the United States is trying to co-opt its Asia-Pacific allies to contain China.Recently,some US Asia-Pacific allies have adjusted their policies towards China and the US,which is closely related to their domestic political changes.Existing studies have explored the influence of domestic politics on alliance politics from the perspectives of ruling party preference,regime legitimacy,domestic crisis and audi⁃ence cost.The cases of Australia,the Philippines and South Korea indicate that competition among political parties makes alliance policies partisan,political survival crises of leaders strengthen their willingness to adjust alliance relationships,while anti-China sentiment in the countries hinders them from developing bilateral relations with China.The adjustments of the Asia-Pacific alliespolicies towards China and the US are driven by domestic politics,while leading to more political challenges to their governments and dynamics of the regional situa⁃tion.China should pay attention to improve the public's favorability towards itself in Asia-Pacific countries,deepen economic and trade cooperation with the countries,enhance stability of regional multilateral security mechanisms,thereby properly respond to the adjustments of the US Asia-Pacific alliespolicies.