聚焦头号对手:战略收缩与霸权国威胁评估的演进

Strategic Retrenchment and Evolution of Hegemonic Power's Threat Assessment

战略收缩是霸权国调控衰落的重要方式,但减少对手、结束战争或撤出资源的过程必然存在掣肘,霸权国须做出必要调整才能适应战略收缩的要求。在体系结构变动期,战略收缩缘何反而促使霸权国以崛起国为外部安全威胁的焦点?当前,学界尚未对此问题提供一个有针对性的阐释。文章试图构建一个分析框架,用来考察其机理。霸权国战略收缩附带认知、动机和组织实践三方面调整,可以为决策者对崛起国的威胁评估产生反作用。战略收缩的启动伴随着决策者对战略环境的再认识,主要问题和核心区域的再界定使霸权国对崛起国的威胁评估由“初步认识”向“相对严重威胁”加速演变。在战略收缩的执行过程中,对崛起国威胁的集中关注和减少对战略再部署抵制的需要,促成霸权国对崛起国的威胁评估从“相对严重威胁”向“最为严重威胁”的转变。文章检验了英国一战前和美国奥巴马执政时期的战略收缩,从而说明这一逻辑。

Strategic retrenchment is an important approach for hegemonic powers to manage decline.However,the process of reducing adversaries,ending wars,or withdrawing resources inevitably faces constraints.Decision-makers of the hegemonic powers have to make decisive adjustments to meet the demands of strategic retrenchment.Amid structural change,why does strategic retrenchment encourage the hegemonic power to focus on the rising power as exter⁃nal security threat?Currently,there is relatively limited number of research on the negative effects of strategic retrenchment on systemic stability.This article aims to construct an analyti⁃cal framework to examine this process.Hegemonic strategic retrenchment is accompanied by adjustments in perceptions,motivations,and organizational practices that can affect policy⁃makersthreat assessments of the rising power.The initiation of strategic retrenchment is accompanied by policymakersre-conceptualization of the strategic environment.The re-def⁃inition of primary issues and core areas accelerates the evolution of the hegemonic power's threat assessment of the rising power from“preliminary perception”to“relatively serious threat”.During the implementation of strategic retrenchment,the focus on the threat of the rising power and the need to reduce resistance to strategic re-deployment lead to a further shift in the hegemonic threat assessment of the rising power to“the most serious threat”.To demonstrate this logic,the article examines the strategic retrenchments of the United Kingdom before World War I and of the United States during the Obama administration.