基于PLUS模型的长株潭都市圈土地利用时空变化规律及其驱动机制探究

Study on the Spatial-temporal Changes of Land Use and Its Driving Mechanism in Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS Model

改革开放以后,我国的城市化进程逐渐加快,城市化水平不断提高。但城市规模的过度扩张引发了环境污染、生物多样性下降等问题,不利于经济社会的可持续发展。因此,对城市土地利用变化的研究和分析是非常有必要的。文章以长株潭都市圈为研究区域,基于土地利用数据集和社会经济等方面的数据,以ArcGIS 10.8和PLUS模型为主要研究工具,借助动态度、转移矩阵、扩张强度及重心迁移等指标,探究长株潭都市圈1992—2021年耕地、林地和建设用地等主要土地利用类型的时空变化规律及其驱动因素,并尝试对2030年的土地利用格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:在研究时段内,长株潭都市圈的建设用地面积大量增加,而林地面积却大量减少;除主城区之外,西北部和东部也有一定的建设用地扩张趋势;人口和DEM是建设用地扩张的主要驱动因子,但研究区内的整体土地利用效率并不高。PLUS模型模拟结果的Kappa指数为0.79,总体精度为0.88,均满足研究精度的要求。研究结果可为区域土地资源的可持续利用提供合理依据和规划参考。

After the reform and opening up,the process of urbanization of in our country has gradually accelerated,and the level of urbanization is constantly improving.However,the excessive expansion of urban scale has caused environmental pollution,biodiversity decline,and other problems,which are not conducive to sustainable economic and social development.Therefore,it is very necessary to study and analyze urban land use change.This paper takes the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area as the research area.Based on the land use dataset and social and economic data,ArcGIS 10.8 and PLUS models are used as the main research tools,and dynamic attitude,transfer matrix,expansion intensity,and center of gravity migration are used as the indicators.This aims to explore the spatial-temporal changes and driving factors of major land use types such as cultivated land,forest land,and construction land in Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area from 1992 to 2021,and try to simulate and predict the land use pattern in 2030.The results show that during the study period,the area of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area increases greatly,but the area of forest land decreases greatly.In addition to the main urban area,there is also a certain expansion trend of construction land in the northwest and east.Population and DEM are the main driving factors of construction land expansion,but the overall land use efficiency in the study area is not high.The Kappa index of the PLUS model simulation results was 0.79,and the overall accuracy was 0.88,both of which met the requirements of research accuracy.The research results can provide areasonable basis and planning reference for the sustainable utilization of regional land resources.