贸易自由化与我国货币政策选择——基于主导货币范式的研究

Trade Liberalisation and China's Monetary Policy Choices:An Analysis from the Dominant Currency Paradigm

在美国加征关税背景下,本文以主导货币范式(DCP)为基础,构建了一个包含中国、美国和欧盟的开放经济模型,探讨了不同关税水平变化下冲击的传导、货币政策选择与福利损失问题。通过对生产率冲击和政策利率冲击的异质性比较,以及对六种典型情形下关税变化的福利分析,本文得出了以下几点研究结论:首先,各国生产率冲击主要影响本国经济波动,但也对国外经济有一定外溢效应,其中作为主导货币国的美国,其货币政策对非主导货币国的经济波动有显著影响,而欧盟作为非主导货币国的影响相对较小。其次,关税水平的变化也会要求中国对货币政策进行调整,对于中国而言,当美国的生产率冲击较大时,如果中国与其他国家的关税水平降低,则应加大货币政策对经济的调节力度。最后,不同的关税水平下,经济波动带来的福利损失不同。国内冲击为波动主要来源时,中国面对美国的加征关税行为,采取对美加征关税的反制手段可以减少福利损失;国外冲击为主要来源时,中国面对美国的加征关税行为,推动与其他国家之间的关税降低可以减少福利损失。

In the context of increased tariffs imposed by the United States,this paper,based on the Dominant Currency Paradigm(DCP)with a more solid micro-foundation,constructs an open economy model including China,the United States,and the European Union to explore the transmission of shocks,monetary policy choices,and welfare losses under different tariff levels.Through comparisons of heterogeneous productivity shocks and policy rate shocks,as well as welfare analysis under six typical scenarios of tariff changes,the following conclusions are drawn:Firstly,productivity shocks in each country mainly affect domestic economic fluctuations but also have certain spillover effects on foreign economies.As the dominant currency country,the United States'monetary policy signifi-cantly influences economic fluctuations in non-dominant currency countries,while the impact of the European Union as a non-dominant currency country is relatively small.Secondly,changes in tariff levels also require adjustments in the monetary policy used by China.For China,when there is a significant productivity shock in the United States,if China reduces tariff levels with other countries,it should increase the intensity of monetary policy adjustments to the economy.Finally,under different tariff levels,welfare losses from economic fluctuations vary.When domestic shocks are the main source of fluctuations and China faces tariffs imposed by the United States,implementing retaliatory measures against US tariffs can reduce welfare losses.When foreign shocks are the main source of fluctuations and China faces tariffs imposed by the United States,promoting tariff reduc-tions with other countries can also reduce welfare losses.