面向城市能源系统的碳达峰评估方法研究

Research on Carbon Peak Assessment Methods for Urban Energy Systems

能源系统脱碳化是实现“双碳”战略目标的关键。由于城市之间存在区域不平衡性,跟踪与评估面向城市能源系统的碳排放达峰水平具有重要意义。提出一种考虑加速化脱碳进程的城市能源系统碳达峰评估方法。首先,确定影响城市能源碳排放的七种主要驱动因素,建立基于对人口、经济水平和技术的随机影响回归(STIRPAT)分析的碳排放预测模型,即可拓展的随机性和环境影响评估模型。其次,通过偏最小二乘(PLS)求解模型,采用情景分析法预测未来六种情景下各城市碳排放量。最后,构建基于Mann-Kendall方法的城市能源碳达峰趋势判断模型,对所预测的碳排放结果进行趋势检验,并据此评估城市能源碳达峰状态。算例分析基于我国上海、天津和重庆的2001—2020年城市面板数据的仿真测算。仿真结果表明:上海于2030年前基本实现碳达峰;天津、重庆实现碳达峰则面临较大压力。所提方法能够实现对不同情景下城市能源系统碳达峰水平的量化评估。

Decarbonization of the energy system is the key to achieving the goal of “two carbon” strategy.Due to the regional imbalance among cities, it is important to track and assess the carbon peak emission level for urban energy systems. A methodology for assessing the carbon peak of urban energy systems that considers the accelerated decarbonization process is proposed. Firstly, seven main drivers affecting urban energy carbon emissions are identified, and a carbon emission prediction model based on stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT) analysis is established,i.e.scalable models for stochastic and environmental impact assessiment. Secondly, the model is solved by partial least squares (PLS), and scenario analysis method is used to predict the carbon emissions of each city under the six future scenarios. Finally, the Mann-Kendall method is used to construct a city energy carbon peak trend judgment model to check the trend of the predicted carbon emission results and evaluate the city energy carbon peak status accordingly. The example analysis is based on the 2001—2020 urban panel data simulation calculation of Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing in China. The simulation results show that Shanghai will basically reach the carbon peak by 2030;Tianjin and Chongqing will face greater pressure to reach the carbon peak. The proposed methodology are capable of quantitatively assessing the carbon peak level of urban energy systems under different scenarios.