自然过程和陆源人类活动对黄海浒苔绿潮年变化的影响分析及机制研究

Effects of natural processes and human activities on the interannual variation of Enteromorpha prolifera green tide in the Yellow Sea

利用2008—2022年浒苔覆盖面积、水文气象观测资料、再分析数据以及各类经济指标等数据,从自然过程和人类活动影响两大方面综合分析了黄海浒苔绿潮发生面积呈现波动性年变化的原因。研究发现:正常情况下厄尔尼诺次年浒苔覆盖面积较正常偏多(副热带高压较常年加强西伸,导致降水偏多偏强;厄尔尼诺次年有效积温天数偏多,有效积温偏强),拉尼娜次年浒苔覆盖面积以偏少为主。夏季苏北海域大风天数和偏北风持续时间对浒苔最大覆盖面积的极值年有很好的指示意义,同时降雨量与浒苔最大覆盖面积为中等程度的正相关。浒苔年最大覆盖面积与连云港、青岛和盐城3个市的年总产值增加值呈现高度正相关。综上说明,浒苔年最大覆盖面积的年际波动变化是气候尺度厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件、季节尺度天气系统以及年际尺度人类经济生产活动三者共同影响的结果。

Based on the data of Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area,hydro-meteorological observation data,reanalysis data and various economic indicators from 2008 to 2022,the causes of the interannual variation of Enteromorpha prolifera green tide coverage area in the Yellow Sea are analyzed from natural processes and human activities.The results show that under normal circumstances,the Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area is larger in the next year of El Niño event(stronger and westerly Subtropical High leads to stonger and more precipitation;more days of effective accumulated temperature in the next year of El Niño event lead to stronger effective accumulated temperature),and the Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area is smaller in the next year of La Niña event.The days of strong winds and the duration of northerly winds in the northern Jiangsu coastal area in summer have important value on identifying extreme year of maximum Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area.Rainfall in the northern Jiangsu coastal area has a moderate positive correlation with the maximum Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area.The annual maximum Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area is highly positively correlated with the annual GDP increment of Lianyungang,Qingdao and Yancheng.In summary,the interannual variation of annual maximum Enteromorpha prolifera coverage area is jointly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation events,seasonal scale weather systems and interannual scale human economic production activities.