情景分析在城市低碳交通规划中的应用及启示——以波士顿、伦敦、纽约为例

Application and Implications of Scenario Analysis in Low-Carbon Urban Transportation Planning:A Case Study of Boston,London,and New York

随着我国城市化进程加快,交通部门成为城市碳排放增长速度最快的部门。“双碳”目标下,交通部门急需采取情景分析等灵活的规划方法应对未知的复杂前景。文章首先阐述了情景分析的过程及步骤,涵盖了构建情景、开展情景分析、评估与选择情景及确定首选情景;其次以波士顿、伦敦、纽约为例,探讨了情景分析在国外城市低碳交通规划中的应用;最后总结国外实践经验,提出指导我国城市情景分析及低碳交通规划的实践启示,对我国城市低碳交通规划实践具有一定的借鉴意义。

With China’s rapid urbanization,the transportation sector has become the fastest growing sector of carbon emissions in cities.Under China’s“dual carbon”goals,urban transportation sector needs to adopt fl exible planning methods such as scenario analysis to deal with unknown and complex prospects.First,we describe the process and steps of scenario analysis,including constructing scenarios,carrying out scenario analysis,evaluating and selecting scenarios,and determining the preferred scenario.Second,we take New York,London,and Boston as examples to discuss the application of scenario analysis in their lowcarbon urban transportation planning.Third,we summarize the practical experience of foreign countries and puts forward the practical enlightenment to guide the domestic urban scenario analysis and low-carbon transportation planning,which has certain reference significance for the practice of urban low-carbon transportation planning in China.