低碳城市试点政策的减排效应研究

AResearch on the Emission Reduction Effect of the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy

将2010年起陆续推出的低碳城市试点政策视作一项“准实验”,利用2000~2019年中国242个地级市的面板数据,采用多期DID的方法,研究其对于城市碳排放的影响以及其机制。研究发现:相较于非试点城市,试点城市的碳排放显著降低了10%;政策在东部地区效果显著。同时,森工城市和非资源城市在成为试点后减排效果显著;低碳城市试点政策主要通过绿色技术进步和产业结构调整来影响城市减排。因此,应继续扩大低碳城市试点政策的覆盖范围,同时在低碳城市试点政策实施过程中注意保障其可持续性,因地制宜构建绿色低碳的产业体系。

In this paper,the low-carbon city pilot policy launched by the government since 2010 is regarded as a quasi experiment.Using the panel economic data of 242 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2019,&the method of multi-phase DID,it deeply studies its impact on urban carbon emissions&the mechanism behind it.The study finds that compared with the non-pilot cities,the carbon emission of the pilot cities is significantly reduced by 10%;the policy has significant effect in the eastern region,while the forest cities and non-resource cities have significant emission reduction effect after becoming the pilot;the pilot policy of low-carbon cities mainly affects the urban emission reduction through green technology progress and industrial structure adjustment.Therefore,the government should continue to expand the coverage of LCCP,and pay attention to ensuring its sustainability in the process of building LCCP,and build a green and low-carbon industrial system according to local conditions.