高质量发展视域下减税降费政策的宏观经济效应研究——基于动态随机一般均衡分析框架的政策模拟

Research on Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction Policy from the Perspective of High-Quality Development--Policy Simulation Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis Framework

减税降费是我国深入推进供给侧结构性改革的重大举措,对促进中国经济高质量发展具有重要意义。结合中国财税体制改革特征,构建动态随机一般均衡模型,测度和比较高质量发展阶段减税降费政策的有效性。研究发现:减税降费不仅能够在短期起到很好的总需求刺激效果,而且可以通过优化要素供给和配置,促进经济高质量发展。此外,不同减税降费政策的实施效力和传导机制具有明显的差异性。消费税减税政策的短期刺激效果较强,但政策效力不具有持续性;增值税减税和社保降费的政策效力更强且持久,有助于稳预期、提振市场信心;所得税减税政策有助于稳增长和促就业,但对私人支出有挤出效应。因此,应继续深化财税体制改革,逐步优化我国现行税制结构。同时,根据政策目标和政策工具的特点,通过组合式税费政策,形成促进高质量发展的政策合力。

Tax and fee reduction is a major measure for China to further promote supply-side structural reform,which is of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.Combined with the characteristics of China's fiscal and taxation system reform,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed,and the effectiveness of tax and fee reduction policies in the high-quality development stage is measured and compared.The results show that,tax and fee reductions can not only play a good role in stimulating aggregate demand in the short term,but also promote high-quality economic development by optimizing the supply and allocation of factors.In addition,there are obvious differences in the implementation effectiveness and transmission mechanism of different tax and fee reduction policies.The short-term stimulus effect of the consumption tax reduction policy is strong,but the policy effect is not sustainable.The policies of VAT tax reduction and social security fee reduction are more effective and durable,and can help stabilize expectations and boost market confidence;Income tax cuts help stabilize growth and boost employment,but they crowd out private spending.Therefore,we should continue to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and gradually optimize the current tax structure in China.At the same time,according to the policy objectives and the characteristics of policy tools,through the combined tax and fee policy,a policy synergy to promote high-quality development should be formed.