中国宏观杠杆率与财政货币政策协同调控——基于时变特征和杠杆异质性视角分析

China's Macro Leverage Ratio and Fiscal and Monetary Policy Synergistic Regulation--Analysis Based on Time-Varying Characteristics and Leverage Heterogeneity Perspective

基于时变特征和杠杆异质性分析视角,采用MS-VAR和TVP-VAR模型探究中国宏观杠杆率的区制转移效应以及财政货币政策对宏观杠杆率的动态传导效应。研究发现:中国宏观杠杆率调控存在明显的三区制特征,样本期内整体以稳杠杆阶段为主;财政和货币政策对货币资金产生一定的协同调控效应,且货币资金的宏观杠杆率抑制效应优于财政和货币政策;从杠杆结构的异质性来看,财政和货币政策对居民杠杆率的抑制效应更稳定,货币资金对非金融企业和政府杠杆率的抑制响应更迅速,稳杠杆阶段中政策冲击程度和持续性有所增强,但需注意调控政策存在的替代效应。据此,应延续“稳杠杆”取向不急转弯,发挥财政和货币政策的协同效应,坚持“稳增长”与“防风险”平衡。

Based on the time-varying characteristics and leverage heterogeneity analysis,the MS-VAR and TVP-VAR models are used to investigate the zonal shift effect of China's macro leverage and the dynamic transmission effect of fiscal and monetary policies on macro leverage.The study finds that there is a clear three-zonal system in the regulation of macro leverage in China,and the stabilisation of leverage is predominant in the sample period.Fiscal and monetary policies have some synergistic regulatory effects on monetary funds,and the macro-leverage suppression effect of monetary funds is superior to that of fiscal and monetary policies.In terms of the heterogeneity of the leverage structure,fiscal and monetary policies have a more stable dampening effect on the leverage of residents,while monetary funds respond more quickly to the dampening of the leverage of non-financial enterprises and the government,and the degree and persistence of policy shocks have increased during the leverage stabilisation phase,but attention should be paid to the substitution effect of regulatory policies.Therefore,we should continue the orientation of"stabilising leverage"and not make a sharp turn,give full play to the synergistic effect of fiscal and monetary policies,and insist on the balance between"stable growth"and"risk prevention".