经济政策不确定性、金融结构与全要素生产率

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Financial Structure and Total Factor Productivity

基于1995~2022年我国省级面板数据,采用动态面板空间杜宾模型探究经济政策不确定性、金融结构与全要素生产率三者之间的作用关系与机制。研究发现:全要素生产率存在明显的空间溢出效应与地区叠加效应。长期来看,经济政策不确定性不利于全要素生产率的提升,金融结构均有利于全要素生产率水平的提升;直接融资水平弱于间接融资水平对全要素生产率的提升,直接融资水平在经济政策不确定性抑制全要素生产率水平的过程起到正向调节作用,但是间接融资水平起到负向调节作用。据此,应积极开展区域间的协同合作,以可持续发展为本,以全要素生产率水平的提升为依据,互通有无;多方对比,充分论证,实地调研,制定出长效有益的连续政策;进一步深化金融改革,推进直接融资市场的发展。

Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2022,this paper uses dynamic panel spatial Durbin model to explore the relationship and mechanism among economic policy uncertainty,financial structure and total factor productivity.The results show that TFP has obvious spatial spillover effect and regional superposition effect.In the long run,economic policy uncertainty is not conducive to the improvement of TFP,while the financial structure is conducive to the improvement of TFP.The level of direct financing is weaker than the level of indirect financing on the improvement of total factor productivity.The level of direct financing plays a positive moderating role in the process of economic policy uncertainty inhibiting the level of total factor productivity,but the level of indirect financing plays a negative moderating role.Based on this,we should actively carry out regional cooperation and exchange needed goods based on sustainable development and the improvement of total factor productivity,through multi-comparison,full demonstration,and field research to formulate long-term beneficial continuous policies,deepen financial reform and promote the development of the direct financing market.