基于二次指数平滑和多元线性回归的宁波市港口物流需求预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Ningbo Port Logistics Demand Based on Quadratic Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Linear Regression

随着经济全球化的发展,港口作为物流发展的重要环节,港口物流需求已经成为港口资源配置规划和进出口贸易的重要依据。为对宁波市港口物流需求进行科学合理的预测,文章借助SPSS等数据分析软件,使用二次指数平滑和多元线性回归分别对其物流需求进行预测,通过对比两种预测方法的精度,最后发现,二次指数平滑法的预测精确度要优于多元线性回归法,并通过二次指数平滑法预测宁波市未来五年的港口物流需求量。

With the development of economic globalization,as an important part of logistics development,port logistics demand has become an important basis for port resource allocation planning and import and export trade.In order to make a scientific and reasonable forecast of Ningbo Port logistics demand.With the help of data analysis software such as SPSS,this paper uses quadratic exponential smoothing and multiple linear regression to forecast its logistics demand respectively.By comparing the accuracy of the two forecasting methods,it is finally found that the forecasting accuracy of quadratic exponential smoothing is better than that of multiple linear regression,and the port logistics demand of Ningbo in the next five years is predicted by quadratic exponential smoothing.