基于偏最小二乘回归的城镇化与农业经济协调发展研究——以厦门市为例

Research on the Coordinated Development of Urbanization and Agricultural Economy Based on Partial Least Squares Regression——Taking Xiamen City as an Example

文章选取《厦门经济特区年鉴(2011—2022)》数据为研究样本,运用偏最小二乘回归分析方法,构建了厦门市城镇化与农林牧渔业总产值、劳动力资源、财政支农资金、农民可支配收入的偏最小二乘回归模型,并对厦门市城镇化与农业经济协调发展关系进行实证分析。所得模型通过检验,表明模型对城镇化的解释能力较强,选取的各项指标中,农村居民人均可支配收入、农业产值、农林牧渔服务业、劳动力资源、财政支农对城镇化影响显著,是城镇化发展的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:渔业产值对城镇化有一定的解释作用,但对城镇化发展作用为负效应;牧业产值对城镇化发展影响不显著,说明目前牧业产能还比较低。为此,提出厦门应积极探索智慧牧渔业发展模式,加快渔业生产转型,稳步扩大现代水产养殖;精准规划生猪养殖规模,适度提高猪肉自给率等发展建议,为实现城乡融合发展、落实乡村振兴战略,提供合理参考。

This paper used the data from the Xiamen Special Economic Zone Yearbook(2011—2022)as the research sample,a partial least squares regression analysis method was used to construct a partial least squares regression model for the relationship between urbanization and the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,labor resources,financial support for agriculture funds,and disposable income of farmers in Xiamen.Empirical analysis was conducted on the relationship between urbanization and coordinated development of agricultural economy in Xiamen.The obtained model was then tested and showed strong explanatory power for urbanization.Among the selected indicators,per capita disposable income of rural residents,agricultural output value,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery services,labor resources,and financial support for agriculture had significant impacts on urbanization and were the main influencing factors for urbanization development.The research results indicated that the output value of fisheries had some explanatory effects on urbanization,but had negative effects on the development of urbanization.The output value of animal husbandry had no significant impact on urbanization development,indicating that the production capacity of animal husbandry was still relatively low.Therefore,suggestions were proposed that Xiamen should actively explore the development model of smart animal husbandry and fishery,accelerate the transformation of fishery production,and steadily expand modern aquaculture;precise plan the pig farming scale and moderately improve the pork self-sufficiency rate,to provide reasonable references for achieving urban-rural integration development and implementing rural revitalization strategy.