1960-2023年淄博市法定传染病流行趋势与疾病谱变迁分析

Analysis on trend in notifiable infectious disease epidemiology and changes in disease spectrum in Zibo city from 1960 to 2023

目的 分析1960-2023年淄博市法定传染病流行趋势与疾病谱变迁。方法 收集1960-2023年淄博市法定传染病发病和死亡数据,采用描述性流行病学方法,分析不同年份、不同传播途径法定传染病的变化趋势。结果 1960-2023年,淄博市累计报告法定传染病35种1 039 739例,年均发病率为517.27/10万,死亡1 885例,年均死亡率为0.94/10万。总体发病率呈下降趋势(Z=-435.46,P<0.001), 2004年以来报告发病率呈上升趋势(Z=157.03,P<0.001)。死亡病例前5位的是流行性脑脊髓膜炎(流脑)、麻疹、流行性乙型脑炎、肝炎、艾滋病。64年间肠道传染病高发,呼吸道传染病波动较大,自然疫源及虫媒传染病呈下降趋势,血源及性传播传染病呈上升趋势。结论 1960-2023年淄博市法定传染病疫情总体呈现下降趋势,2004年以来除自然疫源及虫媒传染病发病率呈下降趋势外,其他三类传染病发病率呈现上升趋势。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trends and changes in disease spectrums of notifiable infectious diseases in Zibo city from 1960 to 2023. Methods The incidence and mortality data of notifiable infectious diseases in Zibo city from 1960 to 2023 were collected, and the descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the changing trends of notifiable infectious diseases in different years and through different transmission routes. Results From 1960 to 2023,a total of 1 039 739 cases of 35 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Zibo city, with an average annual incidence of 517.27/10^(5).A total of 1 885 deaths were reported, with an average annual mortality of 0.94/10~5.The overall incidence showed a decreasing trend(Z=-435.46,P<0.001),and since 2004,the reported incidence has shown an upward trend(Z=157.03,P<0.001).The top 5 causes of death were meningococcal meningitis, measles, Japanese encephalitis, hepatitis, and AIDS.During the 64-year period, there was a high incidence of enteric infectious diseases, fluctuations in respiratory infectious diseases, a downward trend in natural and insect-borne infectious diseases, and an upward trend in blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Conclusion The epidemic situation of notifiable infectious diseases in Zibo city showed a downward trend from 1960 to 2023.Since 2004,the incidence rate of natural focal diseases and insect-borne infectious diseases has shown a downward trend, while the incidence rates of the other 3 types of infectious diseases have shown upward trends.