国有企业改革的增加值贸易效应——基于多部门量化结构模型的研究

The Effect of State-owned Enterprise Reform on Value-added Trade:A Multi-sector Quantitative Structural Model Approach

国有企业改革是连接经济体制改革和高水平对外开放的重要纽带。基于自主编制的我国时间序列非竞争型投入产出表,本文通过构建区分企业所有制类型的多部门量化结构模型,研究了国有企业改革的增加值贸易效应。结果显示,国有企业改革主要通过调整优化产业结构,推动我国深度参与全球价值链分工;随着改革的深入,国有企业全要素生产率进一步提高,缓冲了上游进口市场的价格波动风险,体现了国有企业效率提升对国内大循环稳定性的重要作用。此外,本文围绕国有企业深化改革与未改革情形开展反事实分析。结果显示,2007年后,国有企业深化改革推动2018年的出口增加值率相较于国有企业未改革情形上升3.19个百分点。探讨国有企业改革在推动构建新发展格局中发挥的积极作用,为深化经济体制改革的方向与政策评估提供新的视角。

The reform of state-owned enterprises is a crucial bridge that connects economic system reform and high-level opening-up to the outside world.This paper presents self-compiled time-series non-competitive input-output tables of China to construct a multi-sector quantitative structural model that distinguishes different types of enterprise ownership.The study aims to analyze the impact of state-owned enterprise reform on value-added trade.The paper explores state-owned enterprise reform facilitated China's deeper participation in the global value chain through industrical structure adjustment and optimization.The subsequent reform measures have resulted in significant improvements in productivity of state-owned enterprises.These developments have mitigated risks associated with fluctuations in the import market,demonstrating the role of state-owned enterprises in stabilizing the domestic circulation.In addition,this article conducts counterfactural analysis on the reform and non reform situation of state-owned enterprise.After 2007,the deepening reform of state-owned enterprise promoted a 3.19 percentage point increase in China's value added to gross exports ratio in 2018 compared to the non reform situation of state-owned enterprise.This paper examines the role of state-owned enterprise reform in promoting the establishment of a dual circulation new development paradigm.It also offers a fresh perspective for guiding the direction and evaluation of deepening economic system reform.