中国城市多元供给对人口跨市流动的影响

The Influence of Urban Multiple Supply on Population Cross-region Flow in China

城市之间的供给不平衡会促使人口为满足自身的需求向其他城市流动。改革开放初期,人口对经济发展的需求和城市劳动力市场的供给是人口与城市间主要的供需关系。当个人劳动所得收入满足个人或家庭的生产、投资、基础消费、基础保障后,人口的需求开始多元化,城市的消费娱乐、景观、交通等要素的供给能力也会对人口流动产生推拉作用力。文章利用腾讯位置大数据构建人口跨市流动网络,运用QAP回归模型,分析城市多元供给要素对人口流动的影响,并对人口流动的层级异质性和时间异质性进行解析。研究发现:①铁路交通、餐饮娱乐和经济供给是影响城市间人口流动的主要因素,景观供给对时间选择富有敏感性;②流动群体对不同层级城市的需求不尽相同,金融要素存在层级为单位的边际递减效应,餐饮娱乐和铁路交通供给并未表现出明显的层级异质性;③人口流动存在时间异质性,假期期间,景观供给对人口流动呈现出显著正效应,经济供给的显著性水平明显降低。

The supply imbalance between cities drives population movement to other cities to meet their needs.In the early stages of China's reform and opening-up,the primary supply-demand relationship between population and cities was centered on the population's demand for economic development and the supply of urban labor markets.Once individual labor income meets the production,investment,basic consumption,and basic security needs of individuals or families,the population's demands begin to diversify.Consequently,the supply capacities of cities in terms of consumption,entertainment,landscapes,and transportation start to exert push-pull forces on population flow.This paper leverages Tencent's location big data to construct a population cross-region flow network.It uses the QAP regression model to analyze various supply factors influencing population flow in the process of population movement,and explores the hierarchical and temporal heterogeneity of population flow.The study reveals the following findings:1)Railway transportation,catering and entertainment,and economic supply are the main factors affecting inter-city population flow,with landscape supply showing sensitivity to time choices.2)Mobile populations have different demands for cities at different levels,with financial elements showing a diminishing marginal effect by level.However,the supply of catering,entertainment,and railway transportation does not exhibit significant hierarchical heterogeneity.3)Population flow shows temporal heterogeneity.During holidays,landscape supply shows a significantly positive effect on the population flow,while the significance level for economic supply noticeably decreases.