基于FDEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法的装配式建筑成本影响因素研究

Research on Cost Influencing Factors of Assembly Building Based on FDEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Methodology

为解决传统解释结构模型(ISM)主观性偏强、难以准确反映影响因素间重要程度的问题,文章梳理总结出了17个具有代表性的装配式建筑成本影响因素,通过模糊决策试验-交叉影响矩阵相乘(FDEMATEL-MICMAC)方法,建立了FDEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC组合模型。基于该模型从原因度和中心度、层级结构、依赖力和驱动力三个不同角度对影响因素之间的关系进行了分析,得到了原因因素、结果因素及各因素中心度排序,划分出9个表层因素、7个中间层因素及2个深层因素,确定了成本影响因素分布在自治簇、独立簇、依赖簇中。结果表明:“行业规范标准”“构件生产能力”“施工现场人员管理能力”“利益相关方协同程度”“预制率与装配率”对装配式建筑成本影响较大。最后根据结论提出装配式建筑成本缩减建议,为提高装配式建筑成本管理准确性提供参考。

In order to solve the problem that traditional interpretive structure model(ISM)is too subjective and difficult to accurately reflect the importance of the influencing factors,17 representative influencing factors of prefabricated construction cost were sorted out and summarized,and the fuzzy decision test-cross Influence matrix multiplication(FDEMATEL-MICMAC)method was adopted.The FDEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC combination model is established.Based on the model,the relationship between the influencing factors was analyzed from three different angles:cause degree and centrality,hierarchy,dependence and driving force,and the cause factor,result factor and centrality order of each factor were obtained,9 surface factors,7 intermediate factors and 2 deep factors were divided,and the distribution of cost influencing factors was determined in autonomous cluster,independent cluster and dependent cluster.The results show that:"industry standard""component production capacity""construction site personnel management ability""stakeholder cooperation degree""prefabrication rate and assembly rate"have great influence on the cost of prefabricated construction.Finally,according to the conclusion,some suggestions on cost reduction of prefabricated buildings are put forward,which can provide reference for improving the accuracy of cost management of prefabricated buildings.