累退的缴费,累进的收益——养老保险体系的收入分配效应

Regressive Contribution and Progressive Benefit-The Redistribution Effect of China's Pension System

本文探讨了中国养老保险体系的收入分配效应。首先,我们利用CHFS数据实证发现了养老金缴费端存在累退性、收益端存在累进性的典型事实。其次,基于典型事实,本文构建了一个不完全市场异质性个体模型,并利用中国数据校准了参数。最后,反事实模拟分析表明,降低缴费基准下限可以起到提高个体参保意愿、降低社会整体缴费负担、削弱养老金“逆向调节”作用、利好中低收入与中低财富群体并最终有利于总消费与总产出的政策效果。

We attempt to comprehensively analyze the income distribution effects of China's pension system.Firstly,we use CHFS(China Household Finance Survey)data to empirically identify a regressive contribution structure and a progressive benefit allocation.Then,based on the stylized fact,we build a dy namic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents,and calibrate it.Finally,our counterfactual simulation analysis reveals that lowering the lower limit of the payment bench-mark can increase individual willingness to participate in insurance,reduce the overall social payment burden,weaken the"reverse adjustment"effect of pension,benefit the middle and low income and low wealth groups,and ultimately benefit the policy effects of total consumption and output.