人口老龄化、数字经济与就业技能结构

Population aging,digital economy,and employment structure

人口老龄化和数字经济是影响社会经济发展的两大因素,有必要探讨这两种因素如何相互作用并影响劳动力市场。该研究以数字经济为视角,基于两阶段世代交叠模型,将人口老龄化、数字经济与就业结构放在同一框架进行理论分析,在此基础上构建中国2010—2019年279个地级及以上城市的面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型和门槛模型,检验了人口老龄化对就业技能结构的影响,并进一步探讨数字经济在老龄化对就业结构影响中的调节作用。研究发现:①人口老龄化增加了低技能行业就业,减少了中、高技能行业就业,导致就业技能结构呈低技能行业偏向的单极化趋势。②数字经济强化了老龄化增加中、低行业就业的积极作用,弱化了老龄化减少高技能行业就业的消极作用,使得就业技能结构由低技能行业的单极化向高、低技能行业两极化转变。③随着数字经济发展加快,人口老龄化最先影响低技能行业就业,中等技能行业就业次之,高技能行业就业受影响最晚。④数字经济主要通过人力资本提升和产业升级调节老龄化对就业技能结构的影响。⑤异质性分析表明,数字经济减缓了老龄化对就业技能结构冲击。因此,建议地方政府结合人口老龄化产业发展方向以及消费需求特色,合理规划数字经济发展道路,充分发挥数字经济带来的发展新动力,推动数字经济与老龄化融合发展,减轻人口老龄化对就业结构的负向冲击。同时,制定并完善“三孩政策”相应的托育保障,大力发展普惠托育服务,减缓人口老龄化的深化速度,促进人口长期均衡发展。

Population aging and the digital economy are two major elements affecting socio-economic development,and it is necessary to explore how these two factors interact and affect the labor market.From the perspective of the digital economy,and based on the twostage generation overlap model,this study integrated population aging,the digital economy,and employment structure into the same framework for theoretical analysis.Based on this,this study constructed panel data from 279 cities in China from 2010 to 2019 and used the two-way fixed effect model and threshold model to test the impact of population aging on employment skill structure.The study further discussed the moderating effect of the digital economy on this impact.The findings were as follows:①Population aging increased employment in low-skilled industries and decreased employment in medium-and high-skilled industries,resulting in a unipolar trend biased towards low-skilled industries in the employment skill structure.②The digital economy strengthened the positive role of aging in increasing employment in medium and low-skilled industries,weakened the negative role of aging in reducing employment in high-skilled industries,and shifted the employment skill structure from single-polarization in low-skilled industries to polarization between high and low-skilled industries.③With the acceleration of the development of the digital economy,population aging would first affect the employment of low-skilled industries,then medium-skilled industries,and lastly high-skilled industries.④The digital economy mainly adjusted the influence of aging on the employment skill structure through human capital upgrading and industrial upgrading.⑤Heterogeneity analysis showed that the digital economy mitigated the impact of aging on the employment skill structure.Therefore,it is suggested that local governments should combine the development direction of the aging industry with the characteristics of consumer demand,rationally plan the development path of the digital economy,give full play to the new development momentum brought by the digital economy,promote the integrated development of the digital economy and aging,and mitigate the negative impact of the aging population on the employment structure.At the same time,policies should be formulated and improved to provide the corresponding childcare guarantee of the‘three-child policy’,vigorously develop universal childcare services,slow down the deepening speed of population aging,and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.