克拉玛依市大气颗粒物短期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡的关联性研究

Study on correlation between short-term exposure to atmospheric particulates and death from respiratory disease in Karamay

目的分析克拉玛依市大气颗粒物短期暴露与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的关联。方法收集2014—2019年克拉玛依市大气颗粒物日均浓度资料、呼吸系统疾病死亡资料,运用泊松广义线性模型,并按照性别、年龄段分层,研究大气中细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))和可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particles,PM_(10))短期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。结果从整体来看,大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10))对疾病死亡关联性在滞后Lag 6、Lag 0时最大,分别为4.77%(95%CI:2.27~7.26)、2.79%(95%CI:1.35~4.24);从性别分组来看,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对男性关联性在滞后Lag 6、Lag 0时最大,分别为1.42%(95%CI:1.02%~1.82%),4.83%(95%CI:1.70%~7.97%),对女性关联性在滞后Lag 0、Lag 4时最大,分别为6.37%(95%CI:2.42%~10.32%)、3.47%(95%CI:1.19%~5.74%);从年龄分组来看,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对<60岁年龄段人群关联性均在滞后Lag 6时最大,分别为8.27%(95%CI:-0.86%~17.41%)、4.17%(95%CI:-1.04%~9.38%),对≥60岁人群关联性在滞后Lag 4、Lag 0时最大,分别为2.85%(95%CI:1.36%~4.34%)、4.67%(95%CI:2.08%~7.25%)。结论PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)的短期暴露对克拉玛依市居民呼吸系统疾病死亡具有关联性,并存在滞后影响,对女性的疾病死亡关联性较大。PM_(2.5)对<60岁人群的死亡风险滞后时间较长,PM_(10)对≥60岁人群死亡风险影响较大。

Objective To analyze the relationship between short-term exposure to atmospheric particulates and death from respiratory disease in Karamay.Methods The data on daily mean concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter and mortality from respiratory diseases in Karamay from 2014 to 2019 were collected.The Poisson generalized linear model was used,and the data were stratified by sex and age,to investigate the effect of short-term exposure to fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and inhalable particles(PM_(10))on mortality from respiratory disease.Results Overall,the association between atmospheric particulate matter(PM_(2.5),PM_(10))and disease mortality was the highest when Lag6 and Lag0,with 4.77%(95%CI:2.27-7.26)and 2.79%(95%CI:1.35-4.24),respectively.According to gender group,PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) had the highest correlation in males when Lag6 and Lag0,with 1.42%(95%CI:1.02%-1.82%),4.83%(95%CI:1.70%-7.97%)respectively,while they had the highest correlation in females when Lag0 and Lag4,with 6.37%(95%CI:2.42%-10.32%)and 3.47%(95%CI:1.19%-5.74%)respectively.According to age groups,PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) had the highest correlation in the age group<60 years old when Lag6,with 8.27%(95%CI:-0.86%-17.41%)and 4.17%(95%Cl:-1.04%-9.38%)respectively,while they had the highest correlation in the age group≥60 years old when Lag4 and Lag0,with 2.85%(95%CI:1.36%-4.34%)and 4.67%(95%CI:2.08%-7.25%)respectively.Conclusions The short-term exposure of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) is associated with the death of respiratory disease among residents in Karamay City,and has a lagging effect,which has a greater association with the death of women.PM_(2.5) has a longer lag time in the risk of death for people aged<60 years old,and PM_(10) has a significant impact on the risk of death among people aged≥60 years old.