地方隐性债务的空间关联与协同治理研究

Research on the Spatial Correlation and Collaborative Governance of Local Implicit Debt

基于改进的引力模型识别2012—2022年我国地方隐性债务的空间关联关系,利用社会网络分析方法和QAP方法分析地方隐性债务空间网络的关联特征、演变趋势及其影响因素。研究发现:地方隐性债务呈现关联程度高、稳健性强和等级森严的空间关联网络结构,且具有明显的空间溢出效应;全国31个省市自治区可分为主受益板块、双向溢出板块、净溢出板块和经纪人板块4个板块,且4个板块之间相互影响;地理位置邻接、经济发展水平差异、城镇化水平差异以及地方政府间的竞争是影响地方隐性债务空间关联网络的重要因素。据此,各地区要根据自身债务特点制定适合本地区的隐性债务治理政策,同时加强与其他地区的交流,制定跨区域的隐性债务协同治理措施,最大限度地降低隐性债务风险甚至系统性金融风险的发生。

Based on the improved gravity model,the spatial correlation of local implicit debt in China from 2012 to 2022 was identified,and the social network analysis method and QAP method were used to describe the correlation characteristics,evolution trend and influencing factors of local implicit debt spatial network.The results show that:Local implicit debt presents a spatial correlation network structure with high correlation degree,strong robustness and strict hierarchy,and has obvious spatial spillover effect;the 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China can be classified into four sectors,i.e.,the main beneficiary sector,the two-way spillover sector,the net beneficiary sector and the broker sector,and there is mutual influence among the four;and geographical adjacency,differences in economic development level,urbanization level and competition among local governments are important factors affecting the spatial correlation network of local implicit debt.Accordingly,each region should formulate implicit debt governance policies applicable to its own region according to its own debt characteristics,and at the same time strengthen exchanges with other regions,formulate cross-regional implicit debt collaborative governance measures,and minimize the occurrence of implicit debt risks and even systemic financial risks.