城市基础设施生态化转型与城市韧性关系研究——基于复杂系统视角

Study on the Relationship Between Ecological Transformation of Urban Infrastructure and Urban Resilience-Based on Complex System Perspective

目前中国城市生态化转型与城市韧性提升之间仍然缺乏较为成熟的联结机制,导致了城市建设难以在原有的生态基底上找到韧性发展的着力点。本文基于复杂适应系统理论,构建了城市韧性系统研究框架。利用中国2011-2022年的样本数据,运用系统动力学和耦合协调度模型模拟在不同的城市基础设施转型策略下城市韧性水平的变化过程,得出了分别在两种扰动情景、六种发展战略下的韧性仿真结果。结果表明:①生态转型战略中,飞地新建战略对城市生态、经济、社会韧性的影响作用最明显,其次是“生态>工业>社区”。②单一的延续发展对城市各方面韧性的影响效果最差,而转型战略与协同发展战略的影响效果视具体的扰动情景而定。③对城市韧性整体而言,协同发展战略在短期和慢性扰动视角下的效果最好,而转型发展战略在长期或急性灾害冲击下有更大的发展潜力。④我国整体城市韧性子系统只达到了勉强协调状态,增强三个子系统之间的耦合关联性是未来提升城市生态化转型能力和韧性的有效策略。

At present,there is still a lack of mature linkage mechanism between urban ecological transformation and urban resilience improvement in China,which makes it difficult for urban construction to find the focus point of resilience development on the original ecological base.Based on the theory of complex adaptive system,this paper constructs the research framework of urban resilience system.Using the sample data of China from 2010 to 2022,the system dynamics and coupling coordination degree model are used to simulate the change process of urban resilience under different urban infrastructure transformation strategies,and the resilience simulation results are obtained under two disturbance erturbation scenarios and six development strategies respectively.The results show that:①Among the ecological transformation strategies,the enclave new construction strategy has the most obvious effect on the ecological,economic and social resilience of the city,followed by“ecology>industry>community”.②The single continuation of development has the worst effect on all aspects of urban resilience,while the effects of the transformation strategy and the synergistic development strategy depend on the specific perturbation scenarios.③For urban resilience as a whole,synergistic development strategies are most effective under short-term and chronic disturbance perspectives,while transformational development strategies have greater potential for development under long-term or acute disaster shocks.④China’s overall urban resilience subsystems have only reached a barely coordinated state,and enhancing the coupling correlation among the three subsystems is an effective strategy to enhance the capacity and resilience of urban ecological transformation in the future.