基于情景推演的铁路降雨灾害预测性防控方法

Predictive control method for railway rain-related disasters based on scenario deduction

铁路降雨灾害类型众多且十分容易引发铁路事故,现有的降雨量等单一指标监测、阈值式报警方式,导致铁路降雨灾害误报率、虚报率居高不下。为了有效应对铁路降雨灾害监测预警难、风险预测不准确以及防控措施选择难等关键问题,提出一种创新的基于情景推演的预测性防控方法。首先,依据铁路事故报告和降雨灾害的成因机制,将12种铁路降雨灾害分为五大类情景;接着,基于扎根理论为每种情景类型识别并分类相关的情景要素,运用情景削减方法为每种情景类型构建最优情景集和防控策略集,从而形成一个包含5类情景的情景网络。其次,为了满足铁路防灾决策需求,建立了灾害计划推演预测和实时推演预测2种模型,并提出一种将情景网络转换为灾害贝叶斯网络的方法,通过将实际情景与情景网络进行精确匹配进行推演预测,并根据“情景-应对”方法选择合适的防控策略。最后,以石庙沟车站的滑坡灾害为例进行了实例分析和验证,结果显示,通过本方法进行的推演预测能够准确反映灾害的发展过程,推演得到的情景与实际灾害发展情景高度一致,情景相似度达到93%,灾害发生的概率为88%。采取相应防控措施后,滑坡灾害的发生概率显著降低至12%,列车脱轨的可能性也从70%降至1%,证实了本方法的准确性和实用性。该研究可为铁路降雨灾害的预测与主动防控提供重要的理论与技术支撑。

There are many types of railway rainfall disasters that are very likely to cause railway accidents.The existing single-index monitoring such as rainfall and threshold alarm methods leads to high false alarm rate.To effectively address the key challenges of monitoring and early warning difficulties,inaccurate risk prediction,and the selection of control measures for railway rain-related disasters,this study proposed an innovative predictive control method based on scenario deduction.Initially,based on railway accident reports and the mechanisms causing rain-related disasters,12 types of such disasters were classified into 5 major scenario categories.Subsequently,by using grounded theory,relevant scenario elements for each type were identified and classified,and optimal scenario sets and control strategy sets for each type were constructed using scenario reduction methods,thus forming a scenario network comprising 5 categories.To satisfy the needs of railway disaster prevention decision-makers,two models for disaster planning deduction prediction and real-time deduction prediction were established.A method for converting the scenario network into a disaster Bayesian network was proposed,allowing for precise matching of actual scenarios with the scenario network for deduction prediction,and the selection of appropriate control strategies based on the“scenario-response”method.Finally,a case study of a landslide disaster at Shimiaogou Station was conducted for analysis and verification.The results show that the deduction prediction through this method accurately reflects the development process of the disaster,highly consistent with the actual disaster development situation,with a scenario similarity of 93%and a disaster occurrence probability of 88%.After implementing corresponding control measures,the probability of the landslide disaster occurrence significantly decreases to 12%,and the possibility of train derailment drops from 70%to 1%,confirming the accuracy and practicality of this method.This research provides significant theoretical and technical support for the prediction and proactive control of railway rain-related disasters.