数字普惠金融与农业经济韧性——基于空间溢出和门槛效应的实证检验

Digital inclusive finance and agricultural economicresilience-empirical test: Based on spatial spilloverand threshold effect

农业经济发展是保证社会经济稳定和可持续发展的基础。从数字普惠金融视角,基于我国2011—2021年的省级面板数据,探讨数字普惠金融对农业经济韧性的影响机制,并运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型、空间模型和门槛模型进行多维实证。研究发现:(1)数字普惠金融可以显著提升农业经济韧性,且经过选取工具变量和“普惠金融”试点进行多期准自然实验稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。(2)机制检验结果显示,数字普惠金融可以通过绿色创新间接作用于农业经济韧性。(3)通过门槛模型和空间模型研究发现,数字普惠金融对农业经济韧性的影响呈现“边际效应”递增的非线性和正向空间溢出效应等特征。为提高农业经济韧性,应加强数字普惠金融基础设施建设,充分发挥高水平发展地区在农业经济中的引领作用,推进绿色创新,优化资源配置,努力缩小不同地区间的“数字鸿沟”,合理扩大“普惠金融试点”地区覆盖范围。

The development of agricultural economy is the basis for ensuring social and economic stability and sustainable development.From the perspective of digital inclusive finance,based on the provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2021,this paper explores the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on agricultural economic resilience,and uses fixed effect model,intermediary effect model,spatial model and threshold model to conduct multi-dimensional empirical research.The conclusions are as follows.(1)Digital Inclusive Finance can significantly promote agricultural economic resilience,and it is still established after selecting instrumental variables and conducting multi-period quasi-natural experiments and other robustness tests on Inclusive Finance pilots.(2)The mechanism test shows that digital inclusive finance can indirectly affect agricultural economic resilience through green innovation.(3)Using the threshold model and spatial model,this paper finds that the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural economic resilience is characterized by the nonlinearity of increasing marginal effect and positive spatial spillover effect.Therefore,in order to improve the resilience of agricultural economy,the construction of digital inclusive financial infrastructure should be strengthened,so as to release the spatial contribution of high development level areas and narrow the digital divide in different regions.