基于数据和知识双驱动的储气库地面管道腐蚀风险评价

A corrosion risk assessment method for underground gas storage ground pipeline based on data and knowledge dual drivers

储气库设备繁多,工艺流程复杂,风险因素众多,对其进行风险分析与评价的研究与应用尤为重要。近年来,储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效事故频发,准确有效地分析储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的原因对其安全运行至关重要。采用数据和知识融合双驱动的风险评价方法,首先,对储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效数据进行统计分析,并建立贝叶斯腐蚀预测模型,在此基础上分析导致储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的基本事件。其次,建立了腐蚀失效的知识模型,利用储气库地面工艺管道的腐蚀失效故障树详细分析了导致腐蚀失效的原因。通过各个基本事件的结构重要度系数,确定了各个基本事件在故障树结构上的重要性。最后,将储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的影响因素总结为四大类,生成判断矩阵并确定不同影响因素的相对权重值,为模糊综合评价中权重因子的确定提供依据,得出储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的风险级别。通过储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀风险评价实例应用,研究可为储气库的安全管理与运行提供科学依据。

The research and application of risk analysis and evaluation for underground gas storage facilities are critical due to their diverse equipment,complex process flows,and numerous risk factors.In particular,corrosion failure accidents in ground process pipelines at these facilities have become increasingly common in recent years.Effective and accurate analysis of the causes of these corrosion failures is essential for ensuring the safe operation of underground gas storage facilities.This article presents a risk assessment methodology that leverages data and knowledge fusion.The process begins with a statistical analysis of the corrosion failure data from ground process pipelines in underground gas storage facilities,from which a Bayesian corrosion prediction model is developed.This model serves as the foundation for analyzing the basic events that lead to corrosion failure in these pipelines.Subsequently,a knowledge model of corrosion failure is established,and a detailed analysis of corrosion causes is conducted using the fault tree specific to corrosion failure in ground process pipelines.The importance of each basic event within the fault tree is quantified through the structural importance coefficient assigned to each event.The analysis categorizes the influencing factors of corrosion failure into four main groups.A judgment matrix is then created to determine the relative weight values of these different influencing factors.This matrix is crucial for setting the weight factors in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,which ultimately determines the risk level of corrosion failure in ground process pipelines at underground gas storage facilities.By applying examples of corrosion risk assessments for ground process pipelines,this study provides a scientific basis for enhancing safety management and operational practices at underground gas storage facilities.