湖北省茶叶不同气象产量方法的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of Different Meteorological Yield Methods for Tea in Hubei Province

基于2010—2021年湖北省夷陵区、英山县、咸安区3个茶叶主产区的茶叶产量数据,采用二次指数平滑法、HP滤波法、三年滑动平均法提取趋势产量,探究气象产量最佳提取方法,分析气候要素对茶叶气象产量的影响。结果表明:夷陵区、英山县、咸安区3个茶叶主产区的种植面积、产量、单产随着时间的推移呈多项式变化趋势,2013年之前英山县最高,2015年之后夷陵区最高;采用3种方法拟合的产量变化趋势相同,夷陵区的茶叶产量随着时间的推移呈增长趋势,而英山县和咸安区则呈减少趋势;采用二次指数平滑法和HP滤波法测算出的趋势产量均与实际产量达到显著及以上相关性,对产量剧烈波动部分有较好的捕获能力,均优于三年滑动平均法;HP滤波法得到的气象产量能较好地反映气象条件的变化,适用于湖北省3个茶叶主产区气象产量的分离,可为后续气象产量分离的研究提供参考借鉴。

Based on tea yield data of three main tea producing areas of Yiling,Yingshan and Xian’an in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2021,three methods of quadratic exponential smoothing,HP filtering and 3-year sliding average were used to extract the trend yields,in order to find out the most suitable method of extracting meteorological yields and study the influence of climatic conditions on the meteorological yields of tea.The results showed that the planting area,production,yield and unit yield of the three main tea producing areas of Yiling,Yingshan and Xian’an showed a polynomial trend over time,with Yingshan being the highest before 2013 and Yiling being the highest after 2015.Trend yields fitted using the three methods followed the same trend.The tea production in Yiling area showed an increasing trend over time,while that in Yingshan County and Xian’an area showed a decreasing trend.The trend production calculated using the quadratic exponential smoothing method and HP filtering method had a significant or above correlation with the actual production,and it had a good ability to capture the parts with severe fluctuations in production.The above two methods were both better than the 3-year moving average method.The meteorological yield obtained by HP filtering method could reflect the changes of meteorological conditions.This method was applicable to the separation of meteorological yield in the three main tea producing areas of Hubei Province,providing a reference for the method of meteorological yield separation.