基于系统动力学的能源系统发展策略研究

Research on Development Strategies of Energy Systems Based on System Dynamics

双碳目标约束下发展可再生能源已成为中国的必然选择。本文以2015—2020年为基础,构建了投资与能源建设的系统动力学模型,探讨在不同投资水平下,可再生电力装机量等能源相关指标未来变化情况,并对应调控的内容和方式进行分析,对经济与能源之间的相互关系进行讨论,在模型检验通过的情况下进行动态仿真。在此基础上,合理地调整了模型的投资系数及其他参数,设置多情景进行模拟。研究结果显示,只有实现经济与能源的协同发展,使能源投资走上绿色化,可再生能源逐步取代煤炭,才能实现绿色发展。

Developing renewable energy under the constraints of the dual carbon goals has become an inevitable choice for China.Based on the years 2015-2020,this article constructs a system dynamics model for investment and energy construction,explores the future changes in energy related indicators such as renewable power installed capacity at different investment levels,and analyzes the corresponding regulatory content and methods.It discusses the relationship between the economy and energy sources,and conducts dynamic simulation when the model is verified.On this basis,the investment coefficient and other parameters of the model were reasonably adjusted,and multiple scenarios were set for simulation.The research results show that only by achieving coordinated development between economy and energy,making energy investment green,and gradually replacing coal with renewable energy,can green development be achieved.