基于国贸货物需求的国际港口布局及港口分工研究——以海南岛为例

Research on Layout and Division of Labor of International Ports Considering Cargo Demand in International Trade:In the Case of Hainan Island

科学规划国际港口分布和分工对促进国际贸易、发展经济有着重要意义。以包含港口建设及运营成本、航运成本、港口作业成本和港口其他服务费用在内的物流总成本最小为目标,构建了一种特殊选址-分配模型,应用趋势增长法和弹性系数法分析了货物进出口贸易量,并以海南岛为例进行了实证研究,同时进行了模型的情形对比和敏感性分析,验证了模型的有效性和结果的合理性。研究结果表明:模型能够有效确定基于国际货物贸易需求的物流总成本最小的国际港口布局及港口间的协作分工方案,且求解效率较高;相对于仅将海南洋浦港和海口港作为国际港口的情形,将其与海南三亚港、八所港和清澜港一共5个港口均作为国际港口可使物流总成本降低;货物进出口贸易量和各港口外贸吞吐能力均对国际港口布局及港口间的协作分工有影响,增大其他港口外贸吞吐能力可降低物流总成本。

Ocean transport is the most important mode of transport in international trade.As a resource allocation hub and a key node of international trade,international ports can provide multiple global trade functions such as logistics services,information services,commercial services,industrial agglomeration and supply chain centers,etc.Scientific planning of the layout and division of labor of international ports is of great significance to promoting international trade and economic development.With the goal of minimizing the total logistics cost,including port construction and operation costs,shipping costs,and port operation costs,etc.,we constructed a special location-allocation mixed integer nonlinear programming model,used the trend growth method and elasticity coefficient method to predict the foreign trade cargo throughput of the region in the planning period,as well as the import and export trade volume with major trading coun⁃tries(regions).On this basis,the import and export trade volume between the region and different countries(regions)is analyzed in combination with the proportion of the import and export volume of goods between the region and different countries(regions)in the total import and export volume of goods in the region.Next,an empirical study was conducted on Hainan Island as an example,and the model was subjected to sce⁃nario comparison and sensitivity analysis to verify the effectiveness of the model and the rationality of the re⁃sults.The research results showed that:(1)The model constructed in this paper could effectively and effi⁃ciently determine the layout of the international ports and the cooperation and division of labor between the ports to minimize the total logistics cost based on the demand of international trade;(2)Compared with the case where only Yangpu Port and Haikou Port were used as international ports,despite the higher construc⁃tion and operation costs,the total logistics cost would decrease when Sanya Port,Basuo Port and Qinglan Port,totaling in five,were used as international ports,as shipping costs and port operation costs,which ac⁃count for a large proportion of the total logistics costs,can be significantly reduced;(3)The import and ex⁃port trade volume and the foreign trade throughput capacity of each port factored in the layout and the coop⁃eration and division of labor between the international ports,but Yangpu Port and Haikou Port were present in optimal solutions under different scenarios.When the foreign trade throughput capacity,among other pa⁃rameters,of each port remained unchanged,as the import and export volume increased,Yangpu Port would handle higher percentage of the total volume of incoming and outgoing cargoes while the other four ports would have lower share;when the import and export volume,among other parameters,remained un⁃changed,appropriately increasing the foreign trade throughput capacity of the other ports can reduce the to⁃tal logistics cost.