京津冀2000—2021年地表水面积时空变化及其影响因素

Spatiotemporal Variation of Surface Water Area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2000 to 2021 and Its Influencing Factors

[目的]分析京津冀地区各市2000—2021年地表水面积的时空变化趋势、典型湿地的地表水空间形态演变及影响因素,为该区域水资源保护及合理开发利用提供科学参考。[方法]利用JRC全球地表水产品数据集提取2000—2021年京津冀各市不同类型的地表水,分析京津冀各市近22 a地表水面积时空变化趋势,利用形态学空间格局分析模型(MSPA)分析典型区域白洋淀、七里海湿地的地表水空间形态演变,结合气候和人类活动数据,采用相关性分析法,阐明不同城市地表水时空变化的驱动机制。[结果](1)从时间上看,2000—2021年京津冀永久性水体面积整体呈下降趋势,而季节性水体面积整体呈增长趋势。从空间上看,地表水面积动态度减少的重心区域主要集中在都市圈北京、天津、廊坊等城市,而南北方向上“南水北调”中线沿线城市邯郸市、邢台市、石家庄市等城市地表水面积动态度呈现增加趋势。(2)近22 a白洋淀核心湿地地表水面积在2000—2005年逐渐减少,2005年后开始逐渐增加。七里海的核心湿地面积在2000—2010年逐渐减少,2010年后开始逐渐增加。(3)京津冀南部城市最大水体面积与降水量呈正相关,而东部沿海城市呈负相关,显示人类活动与自然补给之间的不平衡性。北京市、承德市、唐山市的用水量与最大地表水面积之间存在显著正相关,显示跨流域调水和生态补水的影响较大。而秦皇岛和天津市则表现为显著负相关和极显著负相关,显示地下水超采对地表水资源有着不利影响。[结论]地表水面积变化受气候和人类活动的显著影响,未来京津冀应通过跨流域调水、节水宣传、生态恢复和减少地下水的开采,有效保护地表水资源,以应对气候和人类活动的影响。

[Objective] The spatiotemporal trends of surface water areas,evolution of surface water spatial patterns in typical wetlands,and imaging factors in the cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2021 were analysed in order to provide scientific references for the protection,rational development,and utilisation of water resources in the region.[Methods] This study utilised the JRC global surface water dataset to identify surface water variations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2021.We examined the spatiotemporal trends in surface water and morphological evolution within the Baiyangdian and Qilihai wetlands using morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA).Correlation analyses incorporating climatic and anthropogenic factors had identified the drivers of these spatiotemporal changes.[Results](1) During 2000—2021,from a temporal perspective,a notable decline occurred in the area of permanent water bodies across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which was contrasted by a consistent increase in seasonal water bodies.In terms of spatial distribution,the reduction in surface water area was primarily concentrated in the metropolitan areas of Beijing,Tianjin,and Langfang City.Conversely,cities along the South-North Water Diversion central route,such as Handan,Xingtai,and Shijiazhuang City,experienced an increasing trend in surface water area,indicating a directional shift towards increased water resource availability.(2) The surface water area of the core wetland of Baiyangdian gradually decreased from 2000 to 2005 and began to gradually increase after 2005.The core wetland area of Qilihai gradually decreased from 2000 to 2010 and gradually increased after 2010.(3) The maximum water body area in the southern cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was positively correlated with precipitation,whereas the eastern coastal cities were negatively correlated.This indicated an imbalance between human activities and natural recharge.A significant positive correlation was observed between water consumption and maximum surface water area in Beijing,Chengde,and Tangshan City,indicating a greater influence of cross-basin water transfer and ecological recharge.In contrast,Qinhuangdao and Tianjin City showed highly significant negative correlations,indicating that the over-exploitation of groundwater had a negative impact on surface water resources.[Conclusion] Changes in surface water area are significantly affected by climate and human activities.In the future,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should effectively protect surface water resources through inter-basin water transfers,water conservation campaigns,ecological restoration,and reduction of groundwater extraction to cope with the impacts of climate and human activities.