北方农牧交错带耕地压力时空演变规律及预测

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China

[目的]研究中国北方农牧交错带耕地压力时空演变状况及空间分异状况,为北方农牧交错带未来粮食安全发展战略布局提供决策参考。[方法]基于修正的耕地压力指数模型分析北方农牧交错带2000—2023年耕地资源状况,并细分研究区域,分析耕地压力时空发展态势,利用预测模型测算耕地压力未来变化状况,最后提出相应对策建议。[结果](1)北方农牧交错带耕地压力总体上升,在时间序列上呈现“W”形变化;空间格局呈现“整体警戒,局部平稳”的态势,压力重心随时间总体向西南迁移;(2)区域耕地压力异质性呈逐渐分异趋势,受区域功能及产业结构发展的影响,时间格局上呈现异质性逐渐明显的趋势,空间格局分布上呈现出“长城沿线沙化地区长期稳定,黄土丘陵沟壑地区逐渐上升,京津冀水源涵养地区平缓下降”的特征;(3)未来7 a北方农牧交错带耕地压力呈现整体升高态势,对粮食安全及区域发展构成一定威胁,需引起有关部门的保护及重视。[结论]北方农牧交错带耕地压力总体呈上升趋势,且区域内差异逐渐明显,未来应提高全域耕地地力及环境整治能力,开展跨区域耕地保护补偿机制。

[Objective] The spatio-temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China was analysed,in order to provide reference for the future strategic layout of food security development in this ecotone in Northern China.[Methods] The status of cultivated land resources in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone was analysed between 2000 and 2023 using the modified cultivated land pressure index mode.Thereafter,the study area was subdivided,and the spatiotemporal development trend of cultivated land pressure was analysed.The future change in cultivated land pressure was calculated using the prediction model,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed.[Results](1) In general,the cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone increased,showing a “W” shape change in time series.The spatial pattern showed an “overall” alert and local stable situation,and the pressure centre of gravity migrated towards the southwest with time.(2) The heterogeneity of regional cultivated land pressure showed a gradual trend of differentiation.Further,the heterogeneity was influenced by the development of regional functions and industrial structure and showed a gradual but evident trend in the time pattern.The spatial pattern distribution showed that the desertification area along the Great Wall was stable for a long time,the loess hilly gully area was gradually rising,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei water conservation area was gently declining.In the next 7 years,the pressure of cultivated land in the northern agricultural and pastoral ecotone will show an overall increase,posing a certain threat to food security and regional development,which needs to be protected and paid attention to by relevant departments.[Conclusion] The cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone zone is on the rise in general,and the regional differences are gradually obvious.In the future,it is necessary to improve the land fertility and environmental political ability of the whole cultivated land,and carry out the compensation mechanism of cross-regional cultivated land protection.