制度变革如何影响数字金融发展——来自自由贸易试验区的证据

How does Institutional Change Affect the Development of Digital Finance:Evidence from Pilot Free Trade Zones

以自贸区设立为准自然实验,构建制度变革影响数字金融发展的理论框架并基于2011—2021年中国31个省份面板数据及双重差分模型进行实证检验。结果发现,自贸区设立显著地促进了数字金融发展,该结论在经过多种稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析表明,自贸区主要通过促进金融要素集聚、完善数字基础设施建设、提升数字技术创新能力3种渠道间接驱动数字金融发展。异质性分析表明,前三批次自贸区设立显著地促进了数字金融发展;此外,在金融监管更强、贸易发展更好、要素集聚更充分、经济更发达的地区,自贸区对数字金融的促进作用更为明显。进一步研究发现,自贸区不仅有利于提升本地数字金融使用深度和数字化程度,还能通过空间溢出促进邻近地区数字金融发展。

Based on the quasi-natural experiment of establishing free trade zones,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of institutional change affecting the development of digital finance,and makes an empirical test based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 and the difference in difference model.The results show that establishing the free trade zone has significantly promoted the development of digital finance,which is still valid after various robustness tests.The mechanism analysis shows that the free trade zone indirectly drives the development of digital finance through three channels:promoting the agglomeration of financial factors,improving the construction of digital infrastructure,and enhancing the innovation ability of digital technology.Heterogeneity analysis shows that establishing the first three free trade zones has significantly promoted the development of digital finance.In addition,in regions with stronger financial regulation,better trade development,fuller factor agglomeration,and more developed economy,the promotion effect of free trade zones on digital finance is more obvious.Further research finds that the free trade zone not only helps to enhance the depth and digitalization of local digital finance,but also promotes the development of digital finance in adjacent areas through spatial spillover.