成渝地区双城经济圈工业COD排放特征及驱动因素研究

Study on the Characteristics of Industrial COD Emissions and Influencing Factors in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

基于空间估算方法测算2005—2020年成渝地区双城经济圈工业32个细分行业COD排放量并整理分析,运用LMDI分解模型分析COD排放变动的驱动因素及其行业性、阶段性差异。总体上,2005—2020年成渝地区COD减排已取得成效,但减排压力仍较大;从细分行业看,造纸及纸制品业、农副食品加工业等10个行业是COD排放的重点行业。结果显示:对于工业整体,规模效应为正,是促进COD排放的主要因素,技术效应为负,是抑制COD排放的主要因素,结构效应不明显;对于重点行业,2016年以后,食品制造业、纺织业、造纸及纸制品业、化学原料及化学制品业等行业的技术效应减排贡献低于其他行业,且农副食品加工业、食品制造业、饮料制造业、造纸及纸制品业等行业的结构效应为正。据此,提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the spatial estimation method,the COD emissions of industrial sub-sectors in the Twin Cities Economic Circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region from 2005 to 2020 are measured and analyzed,and the driving factors of COD emission changes and their industry-specific and stage-specific differences are examined by the LMDI decomposition model.Overall,the effectiveness of COD emission reduction in the Chengdu-Chongqing area from 2005 to 2020 is obvious,but the pressure to reduce emissions is still high.From the perspective of subdivided industries,ten industries,including paper and paper products and agriculture and food processing,are the key industries for COD emission.The decomposition results show that,for the industry as a whole,the scale effect is positive,which is the main factor promoting COD emission;the technology effect is negative,which is the main factor suppressing COD emission;and the structural effect is not obvious.For the key industries,after 2016,the contribution of emission reduction by the technology effect in the food manufacturing industry,textile industry,paper,and paper products industry,and chemical materials and chemical products industry is lower than that of other industries,and the contribution of agriculture and food processing industry,food manufacturing industry,beverage manufacturing industry,and paper and paper products industry is lower than that of other industries.The structural effect is positive for industries such as agriculture and non-staple food processing,food manufacturing,beverage,and paper and paper products.