系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死危险因素列线图预测模型的建立和验证

Establishment and validation of a Nomogram prediction model for risk factors of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus

背景:股骨头坏死是系统性红斑狼疮患者常见的并发症,若能早期对其发生风险进行预测与验证,将有助于避免或延缓股骨头坏死的发展。目的:分析系统性红斑狼疮患者并发股骨头坏死的危险因素,构建系统性红斑狼疮患者并发股骨头坏死的列线图预测模型并进行验证。方法:回顾性分析2013年1月至2022年12月首次就诊于河南中医药大学第一附属医院的914例系统性红斑狼疮患者的病历资料,根据是否发生股骨头坏死分为发生股骨头坏死组(n=100)和未发生股骨头坏死组(n=814)。采用单因素、LASSO回归和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选和确定系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死的危险因素。同时将数据集按照7∶3的比例随机分为训练集和测试集,并基于多因素Logistic回归分析结果,构建系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死的列线图预测模型。同时,使用受试者工作特征曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow校准曲线和决策曲线对列线图的性能进行评估。结果与结论:①股骨头坏死组与未发生股骨头坏死组患者在系统性红斑狼疮病程、系统性红斑狼疮疾病活动度评分、狼疮性肾炎、呼吸系统受累、胃肠道受累、干燥综合征、骨质疏松、抗核糖核蛋白抗体阳性、补体C3降低、环磷酰胺、吗替麦考酚酯、生物抑制剂、糖皮质激素最大日剂量、糖皮质激素冲击治疗方面差异有显著性意义(P<0.05);②采用LASSO回归分析方法筛选出10个与系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死风险相关的预测变量,将其纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,结果显示系统性红斑狼疮病程、呼吸系统受累、干燥综合征、骨质疏松、抗核糖核蛋白抗体阳性、环磷酰胺、吗替麦考酚酯、生物抑制剂、糖皮质激素最大日剂量是系统性红斑狼疮患者发生股骨头坏死的独立危险因素(P<0.05);③训练集中预测发生风险的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.802(95%CI=0.742-0.862),测试集预测发生股骨头坏死风险受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.811(95%CI=0.745-0.876);Hosmer-Lemeshow校准曲线拟合度较好(训练集,P=0.447;验证集,P=0.870);决策曲线显示使用列线图预测模型预测系统性红斑狼疮患者发生股骨头坏死的风险是有益的;④月经异常为女性系统性红斑狼疮患者并发股骨头坏死的危险因素之一;⑤此次研究结果提示,系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死的危险因素是多因素的,同时建立了一个包含9个危险因素的列线图预测模型,可将其用于预测系统性红斑狼疮患者发生股骨头坏死的风险;此外,首次报道了月经异常为女性系统性红斑狼疮并发股骨头坏死的危险因素之一。

BACKGROUND:Osteonecrosis of the femoral head is a common complication in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.The prediction and validation of the risk in advance will help to avoid or delay the progression of osteonecrosis of the femoral head.OBJECTIVE:To analyze risk factors for the occurrence of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus patients and to construct and validate a nomogram prediction model of systemic lupus erythematosus patients with osteonecrosis of the femoral head.METHODS:A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the medical records of 914 systemic lupus erythematosus patients who first visited First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine between January 2013 and December 2022.All patients were divided into osteonecrosis of the femoral head(n=100)and non-osteonecrosis of the femoral head(n=814)groups according to whether they had suffered from osteonecrosis of the femoral head or not.Univariate,LASSO regression,and multifactorial logistic regression analyses were used to screen and identify the risk factors for systemic lupus erythematosus complicating osteonecrosis of the femoral head.The dataset was also randomly divided into training and test sets in a ratio of 7:3.A nomogram prediction model of the risk of systemic lupus erythematosus complicating osteonecrosis of the femoral head was constructed based on the results of the multifactorial logistic regression analysis.The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)There were significant differences in disease duration of systemic lupus erythematosus,systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity,lupus nephritis,respiratory involvement,gastrointestinal involvement,Sjögren's syndrome,osteoporosis,anti-ribonucleoprotein,complement C3 decrease,cyclophosphamide,mycophenolate mofetil,biologics,maximum daily dose of glucocorticosteroids,and pulses of intravenous methylprednisolone between the osteonecrosis of the femoral head and non-osteonecrosis of the femoral head groups(P<0.05).(2)Ten predictor variables related to the risk of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus were screened using LASSO regression analysis.Multivariate logistic regression analysis further confirmed disease duration of systemic lupus erythematosus,respiratory involvement,Sjögren's syndrome,osteoporosis,antiribonucleoprotein,cyclophosphamide,mycophenolate mofetil,biologics,and maximum daily dose of glucocorticosteroids were independent risk factors for osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus patients(P<0.05).(3)The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting the risk of occurrence of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus patients was 0.802(95%CI=0.742-0.862)in the training set and 0.811(95%CI=0.745-0.876)in the testing set.The Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration curve fit was well(P=0.447 in raining set;P=0.870 in testing set).Decision curve analysis showed that it was beneficial in predicting the risk of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus patients using the nomogram prediction model.(4)Menstrual abnormalities were one of the risk factors for osteonecrosis of the femoral head in female systemic lupus erythematosus patients.(5)The results suggest that the risk factors for systemic lupus erythematosus complicating osteonecrosis of the femoral head are multi-factorial,and a nomogram prediction model containing nine risk factors was also developed,which could be used to predict the risk of osteonecrosis of the femoral head in systemic lupus erythematosus patients.In addition,we reported for the first time that menstrual abnormalities were one of the risk factors for systemic lupus erythematosus complicating osteonecrosis of the femoral head in female.