中国未老龄化区县特征及成因研究

Research on the Characteristics and Causes of Non-Aging Districts and Counties in China

在全国老龄化形势越发严峻、国内多数地区进入老龄化社会的背景下,针对少数未老龄化地区开展研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于近三次人口普查的分县数据分析发现,我国31个省区市的未老龄化区县从2000年的1613个收缩至2020年的218个,主要分布在西藏、新疆、青海和广东四省(区)。未老龄化区县可划分为生育持续型、经济中心型和政策引导型三类,本文对比分析了三类未老龄化区县的特征。生育、迁移、死亡三方面因素共同塑造了人口年龄结构,生育持续型区县的未老龄化原因是深层次的经济、社会、自然、政策、技术等从生育、死亡和迁移三方对人口年龄结构产生的同向合力,而经济中心型和政策引导型区县的未老龄化原因在于迁移对人口结构的作用力大于其他因素的反作用力。最后,本文围绕未老龄化区县的特征成因及经验,探讨了延缓和应对人口老龄化相关的政策建议。

It is important to do research on non-aging districts because most regions in China have entered an aging society and the aging sitiuation has been increasingly serious.According to the sub-county data of the last three population censuses,non-aging districts and counties mainly distributed in four provinces(regions),namely,Tibet,Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Guangdong and has decreased from 1,613 in 2000 to 218 in 2020 in China's Mainland.The study has classified these non-aging districts and counties into three types including fertilitysustaining,economic-centered,and policy-guided to compare and analyze their policies and characteristics.It found that there were three factors including fertility,migration and death together shape the population age structure.The reason for the non-aging of districts and counties with sustained fertility is the concerted force of the deep-seated economy,society,nature,policy,technology,etc.on the population age mechanism from birth,death and migration.The reason for the non-aging of the economy-centered and policy-guided counties is that the positive force of migration is greater than the negative force formed by fertility and death.Finally,the study included the experience and population evolution tendency of the nonaging counties,and finally suggested policy recommendations for coping with population aging for them.