安徽省数字经济与经济高质量发展的耦合协调研究

On the Coupling and Coordination of Digital Economy and High-quality Economic Development in Anhui Province

数字经济与经济高质量的协同发展,是新发展阶段构建现代化经济体系的必然要求。基于2013—2021年安徽省16个地市的数据,构建数字经济与经济高质量发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔科夫链等方法对两系统耦合协调水平进行测度,进一步从地区差异、分布形态及状态转移三个方面分析耦合协调水平的动态演变规律。研究发现:(1)安徽省数字经济与经济高质量发展指数均呈上升趋势,两系统耦合协调度虽逐年提高但整体水平偏低,且空间上呈皖中>皖南>皖北的梯次分布;(2)两系统耦合协调度地区差异明显,但有逐步缩小趋势,差异主要来源于区域间,区域间差异最大的是皖中与皖北之间;(3)两系统耦合协调度内部差异虽逐渐缩小但极化特征日趋显著,皖中与皖北地区尤为突出;(4)耦合协调状态稳定性较强且存在“马太效应”,空间位置关系对协调状态的转移有显著影响。由此,提出提升数字经济与经济高质量协调水平的优化意见。

The collaborative development of digital economy and high-quality economy is an inevitable requirement for building a modern economic system in the new development stage.Based on the data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2021,the evaluation index system of digital economy and high-quality economic development was constructed,and the coupling coordination level of the two systems was measured by entropy method and coupling coordination degree model.Furthermore,Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and Markov chain method were used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the coupling coordination level from three aspects:regional difference,distribution pattern and state transfer.The results show that:(1)The digital economy and economic high-quality development index of Anhui province both showed an upward trend.Although the coupling coordination degree of the two systems increased year by year,the overall level was low,and the spatial distribution was in the echelon of middle Anhui>South Anhui>North Anhui;(2)The regional differences of the coupling coordination degree of the two systems were obvious,but there was a trend of gradual reduction.The differences mainly come from the regions,and the biggest difference is between central Anhui and northern Anhui;(3)Although the internal difference of the coupling coordination degree between the two systems was gradually reduced,the polarization characteristics were increasingly significant,especially in central and northern Anhui;(4)The coupling coordination state had strong stability and there was a“Matthew effect”,and the spatial position relationship had a significant influence on the transfer of the coordination state.Therefore,the paper puts forward some optimization suggestions to improve the coordination level of digital economy and economic quality.