中国区域经济中的空间溢出、边界效应和空间趋同关系研究——基于空间增强型索罗模型

Spatial Spillover,Boundary Effect,and Spatial Convergence of Regional Economy in China:Based on Solow Enhanced Quantitative Model

空间溢出和边界效应是评估区域经济增长的两个重要因素,引入空间变量扩展构筑了空间增强型索罗模型,并采用空间滞后模型和空间杜宾模型对中国2001—2016年280个城市的估计结果表明:我国城市区域经济增长收敛存在显著的空间溢出效应,西部地区的经济绝对收敛速度最快,而长三角、珠三角和环渤海三大地区的经济绝对收敛速度基本一致,这表明我国区域经济普遍存在空间趋同效应。区域城市经济增长存在显著的边界效应,但近年来边界效应呈下降趋势;部分地区的研究还表明,我国东部地区基本不存在边界效应,中西部地区、长三角、珠三角和环渤海地区均存在显著的边界效应。此外,东部地区的技术空间外溢效应最为显著,表明由于东部地区的市场化程度最高,技术扩散最快,其对经济的空间外溢效应也最为显著,东部的空间趋同现象也更为直观。在此基础上,提出相应的对策建议。

The spatial spillover and the boundary effect are two important factors to evaluate the regional economic growth.This paper introduces the space variable to build a Solow enhanced quantitative model.Then,the spatial lag model and the spatial Doppler model are used to estimate the data of 280 cities in China from 2001 to 2016.The results show that there is a significant spatial spillover effect in China’s urban regional economic growth convergence.The absolute convergence rate is the fastest in the western region’s economy,while that of the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Sea Rim is basically the same,which suggests that there is a general spatial convergence effect in China’s regional economy.And the urban regional economic growth has a significant boundary effect,but in recent years the boundary effect is on the decline.The regional research also shows that in China’s eastern region there is no boundary effect which is noticeable in the central and western regions,the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Sea Rim.In addition,the spatial spillover effect of technology is the most significant in the eastern region,which indicates that the spatial spillover effect on economy is the most significant and the spatial convergence phenomenon is also more evident in the eastern region because of the highest degree of marketization and the fastest diffusion of technology in the eastern region.On this basis,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.