“双碳”目标下油气资源安全与油气地质调查方向

Hydrocarbon resources:Security and geological survey to look ahead under the dual-carbon goal

能源不仅是全球经济发展的物质基础,同时也成为全球CO_(2)减排过程中无法规避的重要领域。为了统筹推进“双碳”目标下油气资源安全和油气地质调查,采用供需平衡分析法,对中国油气资源的供应现状进行了调研,进而针对中国油气资源安全所面临的问题提出了策略及建议。研究结果表明:①预测到2030年中国石油消费量达峰供需缺口约为5.75×10^(8)t,到2050年中国石油供需缺口大约为0.95×10^(8)t,到2060年供需缺口大约为0.25×10^(8)t;②预测到2030年中国天然气供需缺口大约为3000×10^(8)m^(3),到2040年天然气达峰供需缺口大约为3500×10^(8)m^(3),到2060年供需缺口大约为1000×10^(8)m^(3);③中国油气资源安全面临高对外依存度、消费总量高、消费结构不合理、石油天然气的杠杆和战略支点作用不容忽视等4大挑战;④坚持油气地质调查工作的定位、优化油气地质调查的部署思路、调整油气地质调查的重点目标任务、优化油气地质调查考核制度等4条措施,有助于提高中国油气地质调查工作的效率。

Energy is not only material base in the development of world economy but an important and inevitable component in global CO_(2)emission reduction.So,by means of the supply-demand balance analysis,the current supply situation was investigated for China's oil and gas resources in order to promote both resource security and geological survey under the carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality goal(dual-carbon goal).Moreover,some strategies and suggestions were made to address security challenges.Results show that(i)for domestic oil,the predicted consumption will reach the peak in 2030,and the supply-demand gap will be about 5.75×10^(8)t in 2030,0.95×10^(8)t in 2050,and 0.25×10^(8)t in 2060;(ii)for natural gas,the predicted consumption will peak around 2040,and its supply-demand gap will be about 3000×10^(8)m^(3)in 2030,3500×10^(8)m^(3)in 2040,and 1000×10^(8)m^(3)in 2060;(iii)for hydrocarbon resources in China,the security is faced with four challenges,i.e.high external dependence,large consumption,improper consumption patterns,and an intolerant role of oil and gas as leverage and strategic points;and(iv)four measures made for the geological survey,containing adhering to the position,optimizing the deployment idea,balancing the decisive targets and tasks,and optimizing the assessment system,are conducive to raising survey efficiency.